$1.3T in RWAs by 2030, more likely than $30T – Analyst

A crypto analyst is skeptical of predictions that real-world assets (RWAs) will hit $30 trillion by 2030, instead suggesting that 5% is a more realistic target.

“If the current 2-year CAGR of 121% continues, we could see nearly $1.3 trillion in traditional assets by 2030,” Jamie Coates, chief crypto analyst at RealVision, said in an Aug. 27 X post.

Asset tokenization is the process of issuing security tokens (a type of blockchain) that represent real digital tradable assets. These symbols can represent anything from real estate and bonds to art and stocks.

In June, Standard Chartered Bank and Synpulse predicted that tokenized RWAs could reach $30.1 trillion by 2034.

While Coates thinks Wall Street's forecast is “overly optimistic,” even the more conservative estimate could have a significant impact on the Web3 ecosystem if it pans out the way he thinks it will.

He believes that if the $1.3 trillion in real-world assets (RWA) were on-chain, it would “create a huge ripple effect” on other parts of the crypto ecosystem, such as non-fungible tokens (NFTs), social platforms and games.

What does it mean for Ethereum?

But he argued that the “accumulation of value” on Ethereum – the platform of choice for early TradFi investors – would be difficult to calculate. This is basically because of how much market share layer-2 networks hold compared to the value held by the Ethereum network itself.

“L2s can handle 95-99% of the revenue, with the rest paid to ETH as settlement costs,” he said.

“If ETH measures L1, it will hold more chances. This sums up what I now call Ethereum's dilemma.

Related: Why alternative real-world assets are booming.

In June, consulting firm McKinsey & Company said tokenized financial assets had a “cold start” but were on track to reach a market size of $2 trillion by 2030.

McKinsey & Company analysts add a use case that provides an advantage over traditional financial systems.

“One example is the bond token. Barely a week goes by without the announcement of a new token bond issue.

Meanwhile, in April, RippleX Senior Vice President Marcus Infanger told Cointelegraph that research estimates peg the future value of tokenized markets at 16 trillion, approximately eight times the total market capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency sector.

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