2019 Fractal Tips on Bitcoin (BTC) price before it goes down

Following the successful approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF by the SEC, the eyes of cryptocurrency market participants are slowly turning to the second biggest event of 2024 – the BTC halving. Bitcoin network miners' reward halving has fueled a historically mature bull market.

However, high volatility has historically characterized BTC price action in the weeks and months preceding a halving. In the year 2016 Bitcoin experienced a huge spike, followed by an immediate correction after a halving. In the year In 2020, on the other hand, the deepest reductions occurred 2 months before the halving and were associated with the risk of Covid-19.

The continued dynamic increase in BTC price since early 2023 may further exacerbate the latter scenario. The cryptocurrency market is very hot today, and many analysts are looking for signs of a deeper correction. Should we expect drops in anticipation of BTC halving?

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Correction 2019 is repeated before reduction

The current situation on the BTC price chart shows many technical similarities with the 2019 fractal. If the scenario of the previous cycle is now realized, Bitcoin could fall by 53% and re-register the $23,000 level.

Events in the months leading up to mid-2020 have been remarkable. At the end of the 2017 bull market, the price of BTC reached an all-time high (ATH) below $20,000. The bear market then pushed the price down to $3,215 in December 2018, resulting in an 84% decline.

Later, the price of Bitcoin rose to $13,764 in the area. At 0.5-0.618 Fib, the removal of the entire downward movement (blue circle) was located in the golden pocket area.

It turns out that this local peak has started a deeper correction, the first target was again the elimination of the 0.618 Fib upward movement. Bitcoin fell as low as $6477, losing 53 percent.

With this, a regular market correction has begun, which may last until the May 2020 half term. However, the black swan and crash of global markets due to the Covid-19 pandemic led to another low. Bitcoin briefly fell to the $4,000 level, forming a long-term double-bottom pattern (red circle).

However, after a few weeks, it recovered to around $9,000, and this price was held before and after mid-May 2020. Interestingly, after the local 2019 high (blue circle), a mature bull market did not begin until July 2020, 55 weeks (over a year).

Will the 2019 Fractal be played in 2024?

The current technical situation on the long-term chart of Bitcoin is very similar to 2019. Subsequent increases also pushed the price of BTC to the gold pocket area and reached a new high at $48,750 (blue circle). Interestingly, access to this macro level correlates with spot Bitcoin ETF adoption.

If this area serves as a local peak, we can expect a deep correction to begin in the cryptocurrency market. If the price of BTC drops again to the 0.618 Fib retracement for the entire upward movement, the downside will reach the $28,000 level.

However, if the decline deepens and reaches 53% – similar to the previous cycle – Bitcoin can see the bottom in the area of ​​$23,000. This support level corresponds to another important 0.786 Fib retracement.

On the other hand, if the timing similarity remained between the current market and the previous cycle, the start of a bull market would not be expected until after 55 weeks. This period will not occur until January 2025.

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