30% discount in a short time
Prominent crypto trader Arthur Hayes sees the fall in the price of Bitcoin (BTC) as a “warning sign” following the launch of his Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) two weeks ago.
It highlights the correlation between Bitcoin's recent high and the 2-year US Treasury note hitting an area low of 4.14% this month, which is currently slowly rising.
Arthur Hayes short term bitcoin price forecast
In a recent blog post, Hayes refuted the common argument that Bitcoin's recent price decline was due to the exit of the Greyscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).
“That argument is false because when you factor in the outflows from GBTC into the newly listed Bitcoin ETFs, the result is a net inflow of $820 million since January 22nd.”
Meanwhile, BeInCrypto recently reported that since the adoption of spot Bitcoin ETFs, grayscale has seen more than $3.3 billion in outflows.
However, an explanation for this investor sentiment highlights the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), which has not been renewed.
The US government established the BFTP as an initiative to guarantee that banks have sufficient liquidity to meet the needs of businesses and households. This is especially important when you have to spend a large amount of money in a short period of time.
Read more: Bitcoin price prediction for 2024/2025/2030
The BTFP renewal decision is set for March 12.
However, he predicts the evolution trend after the expected decision, assuming an increase in the price of Bitcoin after the announcement.
“While the SPX and NDX were falling in March due to the small financial crisis, Bitcoin will eventually pick up as it carries out rate cuts and money printing talk on behalf of the Fed pressing that Brrr button.”
At the time of publication, the Bitcoin price is $41,921.
Arthur Hayes' long view
Hayes confidently makes specific and bright predictions when discussing Bitcoin.
In July 2023, BeinCrypto reported that Hayes predicted that interest rates would drop, the crypto halving event and the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs would push Bitcoin to $70,000 by the end of 2024.
“That's when the real fun begins. That's when the real bull market begins.
Yet, Hayes' optimism extends to 2026. He estimates that Bitcoin will be worth $750,000 to $1 million within two years.
Read more: What is a Bitcoin ETF?
He's not the only one who has dropped six-figure price predictions in the recent past.
Analytical firm Messari predicts that Bitcoin will reach $600,000 by the end of the year, while VanEck expects $275,000 and ETC Group $100,000.
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