41% of Polymarket Bettors Think Bitcoin Will Go Below $45,000 Before September

There is blood in the streets and crypto gamblers at Polymarket are betting that Bitcoin is far from the bottom.

45 percent of forecast market Polymarket traders believe Bitcoin price will fall below $45,000 before September. That rose to a 65% chance amid a market slump in early European trading hours on Monday. Although it's worth mentioning that there are currently less than $300,000 worth of bets in that pool.

Bitcoin fell below $55,000 overnight amid macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. This selloff continues, currently at $50,000, with over $1 billion in liquidations taking place in the last 24 hours.

For comparison, Polymarket speculators a few days ago gave Bitcoin a 5% chance of falling below $45,000 before September. Yesterday, as volatility began to sweep markets, the odds were between 5 percent and 15 percent.

But Bitcoin isn't the only thing Polymarket traders carry.

According to one pool, there is only a 3% chance that Ethereum will be above $3,000 on August 9th, four days from the time of writing. When this pool was created on August 2, speculators gave Ethereum a 75% chance of selling above $3,000.

This comes as Ethereum took a similar fall to Bitcoin, falling 22% on the day and 33% on the week. At the time of writing, the price of Ethereum is set at $2,210. According to CoinGlass, $368 million worth of Ethereum is due to liquidity in the crypto market. Most, about $313 million, were long positions.

In response to market volatility, Polymarket has created a Market Risk tab located next to the US Elections tab.

The probability of an emergency interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has risen to 50% in this market downturn – up from 23% yesterday. This jumps from 9% to 65% chance at the beginning of the month and they have registered money on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcing more than 50 interest rate cuts at the September meeting.

Analysts have often used CME FedWatch as a gauge of trader sentiment. The FedWatch tool is primarily based on price data for 30-day federal funds futures contracts. CME is currently showing what investors think is a target of 475 to 500 basis points at 91.5% – a decline of 50 basis points from the current rate. The most-estimated target a week ago was 500 to 525 with 88.2% according to the CME tool.

Among the most illegal pools, polymarket traders gave the US a 30% chance of a recession this year and a 20% chance of a bank failure in September. However, it is important to note that these figures are subject to change as very little capital is traded on these markets.

Edited by Stacy Elliott.