5 things you need to know when the price of Bitcoin crosses $65,000

Bitcoin (BTC) is targeting a rematch of major resistance this week as the BTC price rally is reversed by the October greenback.

Last week's dip below $60,000 seems to be diverging as traders look to the reward at $65,000 resistance. Slowly but surely, Bitcoin is moving into a long-term consolidation period and analysis is sure to add to the strength of the buyer. The earnings season starts this week as a market. Call it a bet on lowering interest rates and the presidential election. Retail interest is still volatile this cycle, making it a departure from historical trends. ETF investors are also cautious, with mixed flows last week pointing to broader market volatility.

The BTC price set the stage for a $65K display.

Bitcoin came running into the Asian trading session on October 14, marking $64,800 to hit new October highs.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView show that BTC price performance is on track for a 2.8% daily gain, while BTC/USD is now up 1.2% for the month.

Although it is far from the traditional pace of earnings in October, Bitcoin has given market participants optimism.

“No matter where we go from here, I see new highs in Q1 of this year or next year,” prominent crypto trader Tony told his followers on X.

Various voices have called for a retest of $65,000 resistance on lower timeframes, which acts as a key battleground in Bitcoin's ongoing consolidation zone.

Employing the Elliott Wave Theory, CryptoEd, the creator of trading platform CryptoTA, has now broken off last week's decline below $59,000.

“This very recent push to move higher (slightly above B) to $57k negates the pattern of the past weeks,” he explained.

“It was close but that move in C ended up being cut. We expect a $65K trial soon.

According to Cointelegraph, the move followed the weekly close, draining nearly $100 million worth of crypto short positions.

The latest data from wealth tracker CoinGlass puts its total liquidity at over $180 million at the time of writing.

Slowly but surely Bitcoin's resistance is weakening.

Now nearly eight months into the consolidation process, it's a question of “one step at a time” for Bitcoin to retest its all-time highs.

Analyzing the long-term trend, prominent trader and analyst Rect Capital highlighted the high intraday close of $64,300 in August.

That level, he noted, has since weakened as resistance.

“Last August's high triggered a -18% retracement,” said X in a post on October 14.

“But two weeks ago they raised a -8.5% return request.”

Rect Capital added that there is now a “good chance” that price action will resolve the August resistance once and for all and continue to the next interest zone at $66,000.

This marks the top of the downward sloping channel currently in place since March.

“Bitcoin is now retesting the August highs and is likely to break. A break above the August highs allows for a move to the top of the downtrend channel (red box).

Another post The 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) continues to act as support for a second week.

More talk about bears ending up on the back foot, said Ki Yang Ju, CEO of onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, who saw the potential for buyers to take control of the market and push against resistance.

“Bitcoin buy walls on all exchanges are now too strong to remove sales walls,” he announced.

The Fed will reduce rate bets to the earnings season

After last week's murderous US macro data releases, unemployment claims and earnings have taken the spotlight as election week approaches.

The jobs data helped create a particularly worrisome situation for the Federal Reserve, which is now looking at rising unemployment and rising inflation.

“Right now we have federal, election, geopolitical tensions and earnings in the thick of it,” marketing resource Kobayashi's letter summarized in part in a recent X analysis.

About 10 percent of S&P 500 companies are due to report earnings this week.

The latest estimates from CME Group's FedWatch Tool highlight volatile market expectations for how the Fed will handle its upcoming interest rate hike on Nov. 7.

A few days after the US presidential election, the scenario changed from one that saw another sharp 0.5% rate cut to no cut at all.

“We are starting to see signs that inflation is picking up again,” Kobeisi continued.

“Last week, core CPI inflation jumped for the first time since March 2023. The Fed is playing a dangerous game with a 50 bps rate cut.”

Despite this, US stocks moved higher last week, with both the S&P and Dow Jones hitting new all-time highs and gold trading within 1% of their own record highs.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, fell to $58,860 – its lowest level since mid-September – after initially marking a dip into the early Asian trading session.

Bitcoin retail interest “more irregular” this cycle

With no real retail participation since Bitcoin's all-time high in March, new data suggests a “sophisticated” rebound.

In one of the latest Quicktake blog posts on October 14th, CryptoQuant focused on one set of BTC investors in particular: Plankton.

“Since BTC started to rise in early 2024, there has been a lot of debate as retail investors and newcomers re-enter the market. But the answer is wrong. By analyzing specific data, we can get a clearer picture,” summarizes contributor Binh Dang.

Analyzing the changes in wallet numbers over the course of a year, Binh showed a stark contrast to previous bull markets. Before the March peak, Plankton is bought in small increments of up to 0.1 BTC, which is typical of them.

But after that, selling took over, and the trend remains even though Bitcoin is moving closer to previous levels.

“The increase in these group addresses in the current cycle suggests that retail participation is indeed present,” the article commented.

“However, growth is weaker and more uneven than in previous cycles, particularly during market rallies. This is understandable given that global financial flows have generally declined over the past three years. Therefore, the data suggests that future waves of FOMO may still exist in this cycle.

However, Bean concluded that the “last wave” of demand should occur during the current BTC price cycle.

Last week, Cointelegraph reported on mixed signals from Bitcoin whales, with a large portion stockpiling while others joined retail, reducing BTC exposure.

ETF flows highlight market nerves

A similar story unfolds when looking at flows into and out of US Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs).

RELATED: BTC Price Eyes Below $65K Barrier As Metric Hints Bitcoin Is About to ‘Tear'

According to Cointelegraph, last week's net flow represented three out of five trading days for US commodities.

The largest of these was more than $80 million on October 10, before turning the tables on a net outflow of more than $250 million the next day, sources including UK-based Farside Investors confirm.

The mixed results correspond to an equally uncertain trading landscape caused by the US macro data dilemma.

As noted by Bitcoindata21, meanwhile, retail participation here is also lacking.

“Retail exposure to US Bitcoin ETFs is still very low,” he told X Followers on October 13.

“Will they return 74k or more, yet to be seen.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and business activity involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.