$65K Bitcoin Bottom 2026, Ends Bull Cycle

Bitcoin may have ended its historic four-year cycle, signaling an upcoming bearish year, although a wide range of analysts expect an extended cycle driven by regulatory tailwinds.

Bitcoin's (BTC) $125,000 all-time high on Oct. 6 may mark the top of the current four-year Bitcoin half-cycle, both in “price and timing,” said Jurien Timmer, director of global macroeconomic research at asset management firm Fidelity.

“While I remain a secular bull on Bitcoin, my concern is that Bitcoin is halfway through another 4-year cycle,” Timmer wrote in a Thursday X-post. “Bitcoin's winter has lasted almost a year, so my understanding is that 2026 could be a “break year” (or “breakout year”) for Bitcoin. Support is at $65-75k.

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The crypto market could see more upside on fundamental, controlled streaks.

Timmer's analysis contrasts with other crypto analysts who expect a protracted bull market cycle in 2026 with an increasing number of crypto investment products being monitored.

In particular, Tom Shaughnessy, founder of crypto research firm Delphi Digital, expects new all-time highs for Bitcoin in 2026 after investor sentiment recovers from the $19 billion crypto market crash that hit in early October.

“We're dealing with a one-time catastrophic 10/10 liquidation event that broke the market,” Shaughnessy wrote in Friday's X-Post.

Once completed, We hit $BTC ATHs as a rubber band price to reflect growth outside of 10/10 in 2026.

Shugnisi said the crypto market's valuations are driven by “fundamental progress” in the industry, including emerging Wall Street applications and regulatory developments.

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Policy experts also predict a significant development in the US cryptocurrency legislation, this development could bring more institutional investment into the crypto space.

“I expect 2026 to be another meaningful year for crypto regulation, but it looks different than last,” Cathy Yoon, general counsel at crypto research firm Temporal and Solana block-building system Harmonic, told Cointelegraph.

“With the Stablecoin Act just passed, the real impact will come from implementation – the tests, disclosures and how these assets will be integrated into the payments and financial infrastructure,” she said.

However, investors' social sentiment took a hit earlier this week as Bitcoin fell below $85,000. Bearish opinion has since dominated social media platforms, including X, Reddit and Telegram, market intelligence platform Santiment.

Meanwhile, traders tracking the crypto industry's best performers as “smart money” traders on Nansen's blockchain intelligence platform are short-term bearish for most leading cryptocurrencies.

While smart money traders had $123 million in net cash in Bitcoin, the same group was betting on a rise in the price of Ether (ETH), with net long positions totaling $475 million, according to Nansen data.

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