$70K BTC price cut in half? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
Bitcoin (BTC) starts the new week with an uphill battle to regain lost ground after a 15% BTC price drop.
Traders are licking their wounds after a weekend of crypto hiatus – but bitcoin is already bouncing back.
Geopolitical sensitivity will be a key focus for the week ahead, with analysts comparing recent events in the Middle East to the cross-market risk of COVID-19 in March 2020.
So far, altcoins have borne the brunt of the immediate market reaction to the conflict between Israel and Iran, with BTC/USD able to hold the $60,000 support.
However, Leverage saw a general flow, and even on Bitcoin, 30% of open interest disappeared in an instant.
Going forward, there's a lot to contend with – while volatility remains to be seen, Bitcoin's next block subsidy halving is just days away.
As BTC's price action becomes dull, the stage is set for volatility to continue.
Cointelegraph takes a closer look at the state of play in Bitcoin and the crypto markets in its weekly list of important BTC price triggers.
Bitcoin bulls return to $61,000 after crash
It's safe to say that this weekend produced a nightmare for the crypto market unlike many seen before.
When news broke of new geopolitical unrest in the Middle East, crypto, the only free trading markets open 24/7, saw immediate losses.
In the year Similar to the events in Ukraine in early 2022, Bitcoin and altcoins sold off quickly. BTC/USD made a low above $61,000.
Altcoins have soared, with some losing 50% of their value before joining BTC/USD. Bitcoin's dominance in the mixed crypto market hit a three-year high last week, according to Cointelegraph.
While few were surprised by the size of the move, noted analyst Matthew Hyland noted that, in hindsight, there are signs of a flash correction.
“BTC as a whole is still basically being strengthened by ATAs. ALTs have been penalized but I think it was to avoid overused and weak hands from the market,” he concluded at the end of a post on X (formerly Twitter).
Analyzing the current order book data, a well-known trader and analyst observed a continuous shift in the liquidity of the credible crypto to put and pull on the larger Binance.
“Spot still trades at a premium – everything still looks very healthy,” he concluded.
Data from the monitoring resource CoinGlass covered the combined liquidity picture of the exchanges, showing the largest number of requests since April 15 at $68,500.
“Bitcoin is still holding above the previous cycle high,” added Jelle, another trader, referring to the monthly close levels.
“Everything will be fine.”
At around $65,750, BTC/USD's latest weekly close was the pair's lowest since early March, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
Middle East jitters combine with new federal proposals.
Next week features the usual cocktail of US macroeconomic data and comments from top Federal Reserve officials – including Chairman Jerome Powell.
Although nothing unusual in itself, the atmosphere has been compounded by events in the Middle East, which may leave previously cautious risk assets open to further exposure.
“In a few hours, we will see the market's reaction to this weekend's geopolitical tensions,” trading resource Kobeisi wrote in a column on the weekly diary X, citing early trade in Asia and Wall Street.
Jobless claims form the key data publication for the week; These are on April 18th, while Paul speaks on April 16th.
Inflation is an important concern for traders, who have repeatedly weighed in on the prospect of interest rate cuts coming soon this year.
The latest estimates from CME Group's FedWatch Tool put the odds of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed's July meeting at 43%, up from 45% in September.
Financial analyst Tedtalksmacro told X subscribers in part of last week's macro market coverage that “given the market's current sensitivity to price, any irrational information that supports price speculation is a buy.
“Fiscal spending is the biggest force here.”
Focusing on price volatility, the dawn of the half-week is ahead
Weekend market volatility served to halve Bitcoin's imminent block subsidy at the last minute.
With just four days to go, traders' attention is more focused on prices than on the seminal networking event, the countdown to which has actually been months in the making.
Miners were at the forefront of the changes as their source of income changed instantly as “new” bitcoins mined dropped by 50% to 3.125 BTC.
As Cointelegraph recently reported, analysts have seen increasing selling pressure around the event.
However, on-chain data from Glassnode's latest data shows that BTC balances in popular mining wallets have remained largely flat since late March.
Earnings, along with payouts, continue to remain at familiar levels until then. Spikes in the current half-cycle appear, most recently thanks to Ordinals tied at the end of 2023.
Cointelegraph has an independent source of news and information covering major events surrounding the block grant halving.
It has been reported that Hong Kong Spot has approved Bitcoin, Ether ETF
While it remains to be seen how the U.S. spot in Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will respond to the weekend's volatility, good news begins elsewhere in the week.
Regulators in Hong Kong have reportedly approved a Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) ETF for trading — exciting observers of China's future involvement.
“More EFAs, China should have easy access to Hong Kong this way,” noted analyst WhalePanda wrote in X's response.
“So cruel.”
Reports suggest that operators including China Asset Management, Harvest Global Investments and Bocera Asset Management will launch spot crypto products.
“China Asset Management (Hong Kong) has received a license from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to provide virtual asset management services to investors,” said part of a press release currently circulating on social media.
“It now plans to launch ETF products that can invest in spot bitcoin and diversify into ethereum.”
The move comes as US ETFs face a broad slowdown in inflows following a rapid surge in March that led to BTC's all-time high.
US derivatives, however, remain the most successful ETF launches in history, with the two largest offerings from BlackRock and Fidelity Investments seeing net gains every day since launch.
Crypto “greed” still reigns supreme
In a reminder to those looking for a sustained crypto price recovery, sentiment remains firmly “greedy”.
Related: Bitcoin price crash gives BNB, TON, VET and BGB a boost – will it last?
The latest data from the Crypto Fear and Greed Index shows that even the weekend's loss failed to put a major cold-shoe into investor sentiment.
Fear and greed reached 72/100, and while this marks the lowest in around ten days, it is far from a capital move.
As of writing April 15, the index is now rising again, 74/100 near the “extremely greedy” zone.
On April 15th, WhalePanda revealed the flow situation among market watchers in X Survey. When asked where the BTC/USD halving is likely to happen, respondents were broadly split – with a minority still considering a $70,000 retake next weekend.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and business activity involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.
