$74K Bitcoin Local Peak? Divided traders in a bear market

Bitcoin (BTC) traded 4.5% below the $74,000 high reached on Thursday, with traders conflicting over whether this level may mark a local high for BTC price.

Main Receptors:

Bitcoin charts still show similarities to the 2022 bear cycle, suggesting another leg below $60,000 is likely.

Others say the bottom is in and expect the next resistance up to $75,000–$80,000.

Is the 2022 BTC Price Cycle Repeating?

Following the recent recovery from $60,000, BTC's current technical structure shows similarities to the midpoints of previous bear cycles.

Bitcoin's latest high hit $74,000, 149 days after the October 2025 bull market peaked at $126,000.

Related: Bitcoin ‘Extraordinary' Exit Sees 32K BTC License Exchanges in One Day

“$BTC has been in the region of 140-150 day highs since the all-time highs of the past two cycles before pushing lower,” analyst Bitcoin Hyper said in an X post on Thursday.

Echoing that view, anonymous bitcoin trader Isaiah called the rally to $74,000 a “perfect environmental high indicator,” signaling the bulls' premature celebrations for further dumping.

The analyst mentioned the cycle of 2022, the same joy before the crash of 68% from $ 48,200 to $ 15,500, suggesting that history may repeat itself at levels below $ 60,000.

Master of Crypto says the short pump above $70,000 is a liquidity trap, clearing both shorts and longs before targeting lower zones between $62,000-65,000, adding where additional orders are available:

“The price usually goes where the big money is.”

According to Cointelegraph, there are signs of a pullback to $74,000 after the rally this week, which means a classic bearish chart pattern and high upside resistance.

Is Bitcoin's Rally Over?

The bulls, however, are suggesting that the $60,000 structure change is likely the market low.

For example, crypto analyst Bitcoin Munger 2022 Bitcoin bear fractal is not a “reason to lose” because this cycle is different.

The accompanying chart shows that In the fall of 2022, when the price “undercut” the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), it only tested the current trend line and rose higher.

Meanwhile, according to analyst Mr. Crypto, the BTC/USD pair is breaking out of an ascending triangle, with a “strong upward move” expected if the upper trend line at $70,000 holds as support.

Other deviations from the 2022 cycle include strong institutional ETF inflows and tightening supply, which sets Bitcoin up for a rally to 75,000-$80,000 to avoid another fall.