77% List of US Solana ETF Opportunities in 2025: Head of VanEck Research
The odds of a Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) listing in the United States this year are greater than the popular betting market's rosy predictions, said Matthew Siegel, VanEck's head of research.
On January 1, cryptocurrency forecasting platform Polymarket said the chances of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025 are around 77%. In a post on the X forum, Siegel described Polymarket's forecast as “undervalued.”
Siegel's optimism reflects industry-wide expectations for more crypto ETF listings in the US after President-elect Donald Trump's November election victory. Pro-crypto Trump says he wants to make America the “crypto capital of the world.”
Prediction markets work by allowing users to trade contracts tied to specific events, with prices fluctuating based on expected outcomes. The chances of Polymarket's proposed ETF listing have increased to about 84% since January 2, according to its website.
Source: Polymarket
Related: Betting markets predict bullish for crypto 2025
Suitable detailed expectations
In June, VanEck and rival asset manager 21Shares sought approval from US regulators to list Solana ETFs.
In August, the US Securities and Exchange Commission reportedly objected to the asset managers' plan, citing that SOL qualifies as a security rather than a commodity.
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs — the only two cryptocurrency ETFs allowed to trade on US exchanges — use a typical “endowment trust” structure for funds that typically hold a single type of commodity. Success may depend on whether the proposed Solana ETFs can fit into a similar structure, according to suppliers.
Industry analysts see Trump's presidential win as a boost to more than half a dozen proposed crypto ETFs awaiting regulatory approval to list in the US.
In November, shortly after Trump won the U.S. presidential race, Siegel said the U.S. Greenlight SOL ETF is now “extremely high” in 2025.
Source: Polymarket
Bullish bullies
According to data obtained by Dune Analytics, Polymarket is the most popular cryptocurrency betting platform, recording close to $2 billion in trading volume in December alone.
In November's US election, betting platforms proved more accurate than traditional polls in predicting not only Trump's victory, but also his party's victory in the US House and Senate.
With BTC and ETH hitting all-time highs and several new crypto ETFs listed in the US, speculators are betting that 2025 will be a banner year for cryptocurrency markets.
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