Dogecoin may rise 20% in May as DOGE Well Holdings hits record highs
Dogecoin (DOGE) has outperformed the broader crypto market over the past month, rising roughly 18% compared to the market's 10% gain, as whale stocks and bullish chart setups suggest potential downside.
DOGE/USDT 30-day returns from TOTAL crypto market. Source: TradingView
Main Receptors:
DOGE's well holdings hit record highs as large trades hit six-month highs. DOGE's triangle breakout targets $0.131, with $0.088 as a key retracement level.
During the April price rally, DOGE Well holdings reached new highs
Dogecoin wallets holding at least 100 million DOGE managed a record 108.52 billion DOGE, worth an estimated $11.6 billion, compared to 107.95 billion DOGE in mid-April, according to data source Sentiment.
Dogecoin whale trading count and holdings. Source: Santiment
The stock coincided with DOGE's 23.50% price correction, which helped large holders support the move.
DOGE/USDT Weekly Chart. Source: TradingView
Whale activity also increased. On April 28, Santiment recorded 739 Dogecoin transfers worth more than $100,000 in one day, the highest count in six months. The increase comes alongside the launch of 1Shares physically backed Dogecoin ETP on Germany's leading electronic trading platform Xetra.
The exit of the DOGE triangle is indicated at 20%
From a technical point of view, the price of DOGE has entered a descending triangle pattern.
DOGE/USDT Weekly Chart. Source: TradingView
In classic technical analysis, descending triangles indicate persistent selling pressure. These structures are often set to the bottom, but reverse breakdowns do occur, especially in broad converging trends.
For example, BTC formed a descending triangle in 2021 after Chinese mining.
BTC/USD Three Day Price Chart. Source: TradingView
The structure was bullish, but the price broke above the downtrend near $35,0000, triggering a squeeze that led to a rally above $52,000 in the coming weeks.
Applying the same technical rule to the DOGE charts puts the bullish target for May at around $0.131, a 20% increase from the current price. The level is in line with DOGE's 200-week simple moving average (200-week SMA, blue line).
DOGE/USDT Weekly Chart. Source: TradingView
Such a move would push Dogecoin above the average purchase cost of large DOGE wallets holding more than 10,000 DOGE (green) currently near $0.115. It also clears DOGE's total cost base (black) to $0.132.
Historically, recoveries to these cost-driven levels have preceded extended bullish levels, as many owners return to profits and ease selling pressures.
DOGE Guaranteed value in wallet size. Source: Glassnode
Conversely, near current levels, a rejection near the 20-week EMA (green) resistance would weaken the bullish case. Such a pullback could put DOGE at risk of revisiting May's lows of around $0.088.
