That’s why analysts say XRP’s price at $1.30 is extremely ‘undervalued’
XRP (XRP) is down 64 percent from its July 2025 multi-year high, but several on-chain and technical indicators point to the altcoin's “strong price correction.”
Main Receptors:
XRP's MVRV ratio has dropped to -47%, a level historically associated with strong market corrections and accumulation. XRP Ledger trading suggests increased network activity and a possible macro price floor of $1.30-$1.50.
MVRV ratio: XRP is in the “extremely undervalued” zone.
XRP's market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio, or market value divided by realized cap, has fallen to levels that have historically been associated with bullish zones and market bottoms.
The chart shows that XRP's 30-day MVRV is now down to -47%, the lowest level since December 2020.
Related: XRP price is down 50% despite 9-day ETF streak.
This suggests that fear and frustration among investors have reached “historically rare extremes before a strong correction,” said onchain data provider Santiment. he said. In a post on X on Tuesday, he added:
“Historically MVRV's (Mean Transaction Returns) have always averaged close to 0%, making the current level an extremely low value zone for $XRP.
XRP MVRV ratio. Source: Santiment
Very negative MVRV readings tend to see retail traders largely discouraged, creating conditions where even small positive triggers can trigger strong rallies.
While weak MVRV readings alone do not guarantee complete trend reversals, they “usually indicate that most panic selling has occurred and the downside risk is more limited compared to potential reversals,” Santiment added.
Meanwhile, XRP's MVRV Z-score is hovering near zero, a level consistent with historically bullish zones and market bottoms, according to data from Glassnode.
XRP MVRV Z-score vs. Price. Source: Glassnode
The last time the XRP MVRV Z-score was When it fell to the same level at the end of 2024, it met a macro market low of $0.30 before a 500% rally and a multi-year high above $3. The gains in 2023, 2022 and 2021 are 215%, 94% and 1,050%.
Analyst: XRP Price “Forming a Stable Macro Surface”
XRP Ledger's trading volume peaked in April, indicating that “deep ecosystem activity and reserves are quietly building underground,” CryptoQuant analyst TopNotchYJ pointed out. he said. A quick note on Monday.
“Massive and vertical spikes in transaction counts serve as early network leading indicators in anticipation of explosive price expansion,” the analyst added.
In November 2019, trading volume increased from $0.15 to $1.79 (nearly 1,200 percent) ahead of the 2021 rally. The same volatility played out in July 2024, with a 600% gain from $0.50 to $3.17 in mid-2025.
XRP is currently consolidating in the critical $1.30–$1.50 stock range, and massive network spikes are “creating a stable macro floor” for the price, the analyst said:
“If history repeats itself and this current consolidation builds to a launchpad, a conservative 5x macro forecast puts XRP's next major target between $7.50 and $8.00.”
XRP Ledger Transaction Count. Source: CryptoQuant
According to Cointelegraph reportedOther key XRP Ledger metrics such as wallet of record and monthly transaction count suggest that the XRP/USD pair has been. It is set for strong upward mobility..
XRP's falling wedge breakout target is $3.10.
XRP price action is trading in a falling wedge pattern on the weekly chart, a structure associated with a bullish reversal after a long downtrend.
Since July 2025, the price has been squeezed between two downtrends, with the lower bound now a key support near the $1.30 psychological level.
XRP/USD Weekly Chart. Source: Cointelegraph/Trading view
Meanwhile, the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered from oversold conditions, suggesting that sellers are losing momentum. Historically, similar RSI conditions have preceded strong advances in XRP.
For example, XRP rallied as much as 660 percent between July and December 2024 following RSI's recovery from oversold conditions. In the year By mid-2022, profitability was 95 percent.
A confirmed break above the wedge's upper line at $1.50 would pave the way for a run to the chart pattern target at $3.1, a 134% upside from the current price.
According to Cointelegraph reportedBuyers should break and hold the XRP price above the $1.40-$1.60 protection zone on the daily chart to confirm a long-term trend reversal.
