AI Bubble threats in 2026 and their possible impact on Bitcoin

Concerns are growing that global equity markets may be entering another bubble, fueled by relentless optimism about AI. If that bubble bursts in 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market could be among the first to feel the crash.

Main Receptors:

The dangers of an AI bubble may hit crypto first, as overstretched and debt-backed equity markets are left untouched.

Bitcoin may fall to $60,000-$75,000, but institutional support will help limit losses compared to past crashes.

AI foam can cause “heavy” melting in the stock

In November, 45% of fund managers cited an “AI bubble” as the market's biggest tailwind risk, up from 11% in September.

More than half of respondents believe AI stocks are already trading in bubble territory thanks to high costs and poor returns on investment.

Companies such as Meta Platforms, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Oracle have increased spending on AI infrastructure by 2025.

That spending is expected to rise, with total capital expenditures, or capex, forecast to rise 64% year-on-year to $500 billion by 2026, according to Alexander Joshi, head of behavioral finance at Barclays UK.

In a November report, he wrote, “AI will place data centers among the largest infrastructure developments in modern history.”

“AI data centers now drive the majority of U.S. GDP growth. While not inherently bad, this dependence is dangerous if the pace of AI stalls. If expectations are distorted, the rebound could be difficult.”

Financial analyst HedgieMarkets warned that the AI ​​boom could cause a bigger crash than the dot-com bubble burst of the 2000s. It spent about $400 billion to achieve $60 billion in revenue by 2025, with most companies not getting any returns.

🦔 I think the AI ​​bubble will pop, and when it does, it will be uglier than people expect. Forrester predicts a market correction in 2026, and frankly, I think they're being optimistic. The sector is spending 400 billion dollars and only 60 billion dollars…

— Hedgie (@HedgieMarkets) December 15, 2025

Unlike the equity-backed dot-com era, today's AIA boom is debt-driven, which increases the risk of defaults on private equity, banks, insurers and already stressed consumers if growth prospects fail.

Economic historian Carlota Perez has warned that the AI ​​and crypto bust could lead to a global economic collapse of “unimaginable magnitude”.

How low could Bitcoin be if the AI ​​bubble pops in 2026?

Tether CEO Paolo Arduino has warned that an AI sector correction could enter crypto markets in 2026, calling it the “biggest risk for Bitcoin” of the year, citing the positive correlation with US stocks as the basis for his bearish outlook.

Arduino added that the correction of BTC will not be as severe as it was during the bear markets of 2022 (-77%) and 2018 (-84%), which is due to the increasing institutional exposure.

As of December, Bitcoin is down 30% from its all-time high of $106,200.

RELATED: Bitcoin demand appears to have dropped, signaling a new bear market: analysts

Analyst Nomad Bullstreet said Bitcoin price may not fall below the average production cost per coin in the $71,000-75,000 range, a target area previously suggested by BTC's current bearish flag pattern.

A report commissioned by Fundstrat Global Advisors and Fidelity predicted that the price of Bitcoin would reach $60,000–$65,000 by 2026.

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