Are Bitcoin Traders Losing Hope? The benchmark for top traders is at a two-week low.

Bitcoin briefly flirted with resistance at $72,000 on June 7, but the day's gains quickly evaporated, sending the cryptocurrency to $69,000. More importantly, two indicators, including the exchange's top traders' long-to-short gauge, suggest that Bitcoin (BTC) investor optimism is waning. Is the Bitcoin bull market over, at least for the short term?

Bitcoin and gold are at all-time highs in the S&P 500

The S&P 500 index hit an inward peak after the U.S. reported an increase of 272,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in May, well ahead of last month's 165,000 jobs. A strong labor market is generally beneficial for credit and consumption, and therefore, for publicly listed companies. People tend to spend more when the labor market is tight, regardless of the cost of capital.

In particular, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that wages rose 0.4% in May, including entry-level workers aged 25-54, suggesting a positive relationship between job creation and corporate earnings. The highest rate in 22 years is 83.6%. While U.S. stocks were lower in the consumer sector on June 7, the technology sector more than compensated for the move.

Citi's senior global economist Robert Sokin said the longer the US Federal Reserve keeps interest rates above 5.25%, the more likely it is to cut them, Yahoo Finance reported. However, there is no indication of a risk based on the latest US unemployment data, which stands at 4%. According to CME's FedWatch tool, investors are now pricing in a 51% chance the Fed will cut rates, down from 69% in September.

Bitcoin was not the only asset class negatively impacted by macroeconomic data and investors' expectations of interest rate cuts. Gold fell to $2,300 after flirting with $2,390 early on June 7. Meanwhile, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.87% from 4.74% over the same period, suggesting traders are shedding their fixed income positions.

While it may seem counterintuitive that Bitcoin is trading in the wake of gold and fixed income when the stock market is down, consider that the largest US-listed companies hold $3.6 trillion in cash and cash equivalents. These holdings can reap money-market fund returns or be engaged in stock buyback programs. Basically, even if corporate profits are affected, the price impact will be very small compared to other assets.

Bitcoin's top traders have recently reduced their energy bets

Data from the BTC futures markets should be analyzed to understand if whale sentiment has been affected by the rejection of the $72,000 price resistance. The long-to-short ratio of senior traders consolidates positions on spot, forward and monthly futures contracts. A higher ratio favors long (buying) positions, while on the contrary, it indicates that professional traders prefer short (selling) contracts.

On Binance, the current long-short ratio stands at 1.35, compared to a week ago on May 31, when the indicator stood at 1.58, a bullish stance in favor of longs. Similarly, the long-to-short ratio of OKX's main traders fell to 1.22 from 1.79 compared to May 31. On average, the indicator has dropped to its lowest level in more than two weeks, which is somewhat, but still favoring bullish bets in absolute terms.

However, other metrics, such as the premium for stablecoins in China, suggest a modest increase in retail demand. Excessive retail inflows typically send stablecoin premiums higher than 1.5%, while bear markets cause declines.

The USD Coin (USDC) premium in China remained above the 1% neutral threshold on June 7, completely ignoring the BTC price correction. From one perspective, bulls can take comfort in the knowledge that both whales and retailers are selling on panic. . Such data supports the idea that Bitcoin's top traders may be moving from long to short as it shows the strength of the $69,000 support.

This article is not intended for general information purposes and should not be construed as legal or investment advice. The views, ideas and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.