As capital dries up, Bitcoin may stop in Q1 2026, says CryptoQuant
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CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju expects Bitcoin to trade sideways through the first quarter of 2026, warning that capital inflows into the asset have slowed as investors return to traditional markets.
Key Takeaways:
CryptoQuant's Ki Young Ju expects bitcoin to trade sideways in early 2026 as capital flows slowly.
Weak sentiment and a turn to stocks and precious metals are weighing on short-term momentum.
Strong ETF earnings suggest institutional interest remains despite a muted price outlook.
“Capital flows into Bitcoin have dried up,” Ju said Wednesday, noting that the currency has recently shifted to stocks and precious metals as gold and silver prices rise.
He said that while bitcoin has often shown strong momentum early in the year, the current setup indicates a period of subdued price action rather than a rally or selloff.
Bitcoin slips from weekly high as CryptoQuant CEO sees side trading
At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading around $90,900, down more than 2% on the day and missing its weekly high near $94,400, according to CoinMarketCap.
Ju said a deep recession seemed unlikely, with the market headed for “boring sideways” trading in the coming months.
A flat first quarter contradicts historical patterns. January has typically delivered moderate gains for Bitcoin, with an average return of 3.8% since 2013.
According to data from CoinGlass, February and March were strong, with average gains of 13.1% and 12.2%.
Ju's cautious outlook follows recent warnings from veteran trader Peter Brandt and Fidelity Macro Research Director Jurien Timmer, both of whom have floated scenarios of Bitcoin revisiting the $60,000–$65,000 range this year.
Market sentiment also remained weak. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has hovered between “fear” and “high fear” since early November, reaching 28 points on Thursday, indicating continued caution among traders.
However, not all indicators are pointing down. Spot Bitcoin Exchange 2026 opened with renewed earnings, recording $925.3 million in net additions in the first three trading days of the year, Farside Investors said.
The flows show that institutional interest remains short-term hesitancy.
Bitcoin Bulls Have Confidence in 2026 as Draper and Bitwise Eye New Highs
Optimism among long-term bulls also remains strong. Venture capitalist Tim Draper reiterated this week that 2026 will be the new year, reiterating his long-held $250,000 price target for Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at Bitwise, argues that Bitcoin will break its traditional four-year cycle in 2026 and push to new highs.
Meanwhile, Abra CEO Bill Baradite believes easing monetary policy could benefit bitcoin in 2026, reviving risk appetite after a long period of tight financial conditions.
Barhait said the U.S. central bank is laying the groundwork for advanced policy.
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