AXS price needs to ask $2.54 to avoid a big dip – here’s why.
The price of the Axie Infinity has bounced back, but the big question is why whales are buying it. Since opening on January 21, AXS's price has risen by about 41%, hitting a wall around $3.00. The march was swift and almost uninterrupted. Now, warning signs are emerging, with prices down more than 17% on the day, even as large holders quietly increase exposure.
This creates an obvious conflict. Whales are retreating, but a number of chart signals suggest that the threat of a near-term comeback is on the rise.
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Bearish Harami marked buyer fatigue after the rally
The first warning of a 24-hour early breakout comes from the daily XS candlestick structure. A bearish harem pattern formed near recent highs. A bearish harami occurs when a small red candle forms within the body of a previous strong green candle. It shows that buyers are losing momentum and sellers are starting to push back.
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This pattern is important because Axie Infinity has demonstrated this behavior before. On January 18th, a similar bearish trend appeared after a strong advance. In the following days, AXS corrected around 26 percent. That move prompted buyers to pull back and sellers used higher prices to exit.
This means a big crash could be coming, especially since AXS is down 17% in the last 24 hours. After the 41% rally, the inverted strength indicates that it is no longer expanding. At least, not for a while.
Are whales finally buying again – misplaced optimism?
The information on the chain indicates that something important has changed. Axie Infinity whales were reducing exposure during the earlier stages of the procession. That selling pressure was visible across all Sentiment data and coincided with steady price gains. That proves AXS whales can take advantage of Axie Infinity's 220% month-over-month price strength to take advantage of otherwise loss-making positions.
That behavior has now changed.
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As of January 22nd, whale wallets increased their holdings from 243.78 million AXS to 243.94 million AASS. This equates to an increase of about 160,000 tokens. At current prices, the purchase was approximately $430,000.
This suggests that whales are no longer using rafts to ascend. Instead, they seem to show themselves to be strong and confident.
That currently includes support coverage, but does not remove the short-term threat created by the bearish Harami candlestick pattern that started the correction earlier.
Exchange flow data confirm this mixed picture. On January 15, Axie Infinity saw high exchange flows of around 4.07 million tokens, a clear sign of selling pressure. On January 18, flows reversed sharply negative, with around 465,000 tokens leaving exchanges, showing strong buying interest.
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As of January 24, the exchange's flow has cooled to 112,000 tokens. That means buyers are still dominant, but demand is weaker than before. Whales are beginning to take advantage as they selectively increase. Are whales making the right calls?
MFI divergence and AXS price levels were the decisions.
Momentum indicators strengthened the caution. The money flow index, which tracks buying and selling pressure using price and volume, rose $2.71 between Jan. 17 and Jan. 23.
It shows that the dips are not being ruled by force as they were on the march. The price of AXS began to slide, and a small immediate support below it pushed the level lower.
In terms of value, key levels quickly came into focus. On the downside, Axie Infinity should have recovered and held above $3.00 (a key psychological level that rejected the price earlier), then push at $3.11. A clean break above $3.11 could reopen the path to $4.02.
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But that didn't happen.
On the downside, $2.54 has been highlighted as critical support. This level is aligned with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and has served as a strong reaction zone in the past. AXS lost $2.54, and the correction began.
The return could now rise to $2.20 and even $1.98, capturing the whales' depth in the process.
Whales are buying, but the pace is slowing. Buyers remain in control, but no longer aggressive.
If Axie Infinity takes above $2.54 and rebuilds, the rally could be extended. If not, the market needs a deep correction before the next leg up.
