Bearish chart meets bullish chain moves – which side will win next?

Long-term holders collect as speculative supply contracts

According to Glassnode data, Dogecoin's speculative supply is running out and long-term holders are showing early signs of rallying.

The 1-year to 2-year holding group increased Dogecoin supply from 21.84% to approximately 22.34%. Although the increase appears modest, the sign is significant.

These holders typically stock up only when they believe the low side effects have started to wear off.

The network's coin activity, which is measured by the number of coins they issue, reinforces this view.

On-chain spending on coins has fallen sharply.

The age band measure of spent coins dropped from 251.97 million DOGE to about 94.34 million DOGE, representing a drop of over 60 percent in coin activity.

Reduced coin activity probably indicates that fewer holders are rushing to transfer or release tokens.

Historically, similar declines in activity have been preceded by short-term relief rallies in Dogecoin.

In early December, a similar slowdown preceded a rally from $0.132 to $0.151, a move of nearly 15% in three days.

Dogecoin Price Forecast: The 4-hour chart shows a defined downtrend structure

The chart shows the Dogecoin trading well on the 4-hour time frame, and the price is currently hovering around the $0.125 range.

The market structure is characterized by low highs and low lows, and the price continues to trade below all highlighted resistance zones. The fastest level to watch is around $0.12, which is marked as critical support.

This level is acting as a floor of demand for now, but repeated tests will weaken its strength, increasing the risk of a breakout if sellers continue to dominate.

On the upside, the $0.14 zone stands out as important resistance with early consolidation and a correction from multiple rejection points.

As long as Dogecoin remains below this level, bearish attempts are likely to be corrections rather than trend reversals. A more meaningful breakout confirmation is issued only if the price recovers and breaks above the extended $0.16 resistance band.

Such a move would signal a change in momentum and open the door for a recovery first to $0.18 and then to $0.20–0.21, which would be in line with the upper target levels on the chart.

In the meantime, rallies to the opposition could attract selling pressure.

Momentum indicators reinforce a careful attitude.

The RSI sits near the low-40s, below the neutral 50 level, indicating weak momentum and a market that still favors sellers.

While the RSI is not deeply oversold, indicating room for short-term swings, it has yet to show the strength typically associated with trend reversals.

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