Betting markets predict bullish for crypto 2025.
Bettors are betting that 2025 will be a banner year for kriptovalyutnogo markets, according to Cointelegraph's review of data from two popular forecasting markets.
Traders at Polymarket and Kalshi expect Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) to reach new highs in 2025. In addition, the United States is expected to launch several new crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
As of December 26th, Kalshi predicts more than 60% of BTC and ETH prices will reach at least $125,000 and $5,000 by 2025. Polymarket has set 50% BTC odds to touch $120,000 before the end of March.
To date, Bitcoin's record high is around $108,300, and Ether's is around $4,720.
Source: Kalshi
Meanwhile, Polymarket speculators expect US regulators to greenlight XRP (XRP), Solana (SOL) and Litecoin (LTC) ETFs on July 31, with a probability of 75%, 69% and 51% respectively. At that time, they put the Dogecoin (DOGE) ETF approval odds at around 22%.
Additionally, Kalshi users see a 59% chance that US President-elect Donald Trump will create a national strategic bitcoin reserve during his presidency. Polymarket assigns only a 29% chance of Trump's first 100 days in office.
Polymarket and Kalshi rose to prominence during the US election in November, with over $4 billion in business linked to the US presidential race alone.
Prediction markets work by allowing users to trade contracts tied to specific events, with prices fluctuating based on expected outcomes. They proved to be more accurate than traditional polls in predicting not only Trump's victory, but also his party's victory in the US House and Senate.
Source: Polymarket
Conflicting signs
Compared to betting platforms, conventional futures markets expect more moderate gains for cryptocurrencies in the first quarter of 2025.
Traders on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), America's largest futures exchange, are buying BTC at roughly $98,000 and ETH at $3,500 in March.
That's still meaningfully higher than BTC and ETH's Dec. 26 spot prices of around $96,000 and $3,350, respectively. Both cryptocurrencies are down around 4% since EST on December 26th.
Futures contracts are standardized agreements to buy or sell an asset at a future date. They play a vital role in hedging strategies and are popular for guessing.
Related: Why tech giants like Amazon may be hesitant to accept Bitcoin
