Biden flips Kamala: Crypto markets expect him to be presidential candidate

Two days after U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris became a possibility for the Democratic nomination for the nation's highest office, embattled incumbent Joe Biden is more likely to dominate the ticket in November, according to crypto betting. Site Polymarket.

Biden's chances of becoming the Democratic nominee rose to 42 percent on the site on Friday, with Harris' hopes dropping to 36 percent. So far, more than $88 million has been spent on the question of who will be the Democratic nominee.

In the popular prediction market, Harris overtook Biden earlier this week amid the chaos and turmoil of the president's downfall, sparking widespread speculation about his candidacy and possible replacement as the president's performance has deteriorated.

With odds of more than 40% starting Tuesday, Harris held the top spot for two days — though Biden's odds increased after he told supporters later that day, “I'm in this race and we're going to win it.”

Another strong statement from Biden appears to have played a big role in his resurgence, with Polymarket (aka X) reiterating on Twitter that the president will stay in the race, citing a “fiery speech” in Wisconsin on Friday. A separate Polymarket bet, with $11 million in bets, has dropped to 59%, according to the site.

Those odds, which had risen to 61 percent at the time of writing, were up to 82 percent on Tuesday.

In contrast to the market volatility for Democratic candidates, Polymarket users are giving former first lady Michelle Obama a 7% chance of becoming the party's presidential nominee, despite her repeated and clear declaration that she will not run. For Biden's intended challenger.

According to Polymarket, former President Donald Trump has been widely favored to become the next US President for more than two weeks, with more than 60% chance of winning. With that bet—with more than $220 million on the line—Harris still has 16% to 13% odds of winning over Biden in Polymarket bettors' favor.

Edited by Andrew Hayward.