Bitcoin analysts agree that BTC has ‘a lot to do’.
According to Charles Edwards, an analyst and founder of the Capriole Investments fund, several on-chain metrics suggest that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have “a lot to go” in this bull market.
In his recent newsletter, Edwards explained that transaction fees from the recent launch of Ronus and other long-term metrics “point to higher initial Bitcoin (BTC) prices” after Bitcoin's halving.
“Bitcoin is now harder than gold”.
Bitcoin's fourth half of inflation led to a 50% decline in supply growth for the digital asset, which outperforms gold.
Edwards said that the long-term ongoing decline in currency and high inflation has made bitcoin a leading “global fungible asset” for long-term wealth preservation.
“Gold's inflation rate rises +50% to 3% by 2023, making Bitcoin's inflation rate less than one-quarter that of gold. Bitcoin is the most elusive store of value right now.
Market data firm Glasnode reached a similar conclusion, with the halving bitcoin decisively outperforming gold in terms of supply shortages.
Glassnode analysts said:
For the first time in history, Bitcoin's fixed-territorial issuance rate (0.83%) is lower than that of gold (~2.3%), so the fourth halving is a milestone in comparing Bitcoin to gold. Very small property title.
Meanwhile, American entrepreneur and former CEO of cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, said that the governments of the world will continue to print money to pay off their debts, and their money will disappear in Bitcoin.
This makes Bitcoin “the hardest currency ever created”.
Related: Price Analysis 4/24: BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, XRP, DOGE, TON, ADA, AVAX, SHIB
History rhymes but does not repeat itself.
Many analysts have commented on the implications of Bitcoin's halving of BTC's price. Edwards now believes that three things can happen in BTC post-halving.
The first scenario assumes that the price of BTC will rise. The second is that approximately 15% of Bitcoin miners shut down their gear and stop trading. The third assumes that transaction fees will remain at a much higher level than the average.
Edwards said he expects “a little bit of all three.”
“Bitcoin's Days Below $100K Are Numbered.”
However, Glassnode notes that Bitcoin's performance in different half-centuries is “very widespread” and “very different” and cautions its readers to manage their expectations against historical precedents.
“We're seeing both diminishing returns and a diminishing total effect over time, which is a natural consequence of the growing size of the market and the amount of capital inflows required to operate it.”
Glassnode reviewed BTC's price performance between cyclical lows and halvings and found that while the similarities between 2015, 2018 and the 200% and 300% price increases were striking, 2024 was different, breaking all of the previous ones. – Peak time before the half event.
“The ATH we saw in March comes on the back of historically tight supply and impressive demand for our new ETF lineup.”
Glassnode also halved the Epoch 2 with 365 days of massive price performance, the current market dynamics and landscape is vastly different compared to past halvings.
Although Glassnode did not rule out the possibility of a significant increase in the price of BTC, he pointed out that things may not be as they were before.
For his part, Hayes said BTC's road to $1 million from its current level may not be as difficult as its rise from zero during the bursting of the sovereign debt bubble.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and business activity involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.
