Bitcoin analysts see recovery to $105k, but ETF flows slow
Despite the lack of institutional buying power due to the holiday, Bitcoin analysts are looking for a quick recovery above $100,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) price has been trading at a psychological level of $100,000 since Dec. 19, and is currently down 9.7% from its high of $108,300 on Dec. 17, according to Cointelegraph Markets Pro data.
BTC/USD, 1-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph
However, it could face an imminent correction above $105,000 if liquidity returns after the Christmas holidays, according to Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitgate Research.
The current fall in bitcoin is an organic symptom of the holiday's illegality, the analyst told Cointelegraph.
“After Christmas, market activity typically picks up again, with funds expected to actively invest in sectors likely to benefit from Trump's upcoming inauguration… Expected trading volume for BTC this week is $94,000 – $105,000.”
The analysts' prediction is that the cryptocurrency regulations in the United States and the general economic policy leading to 2028 will be considered a positive event, which will come about a month before the presidential inauguration of Donald on January 20.
Related: Bitcoin Hits $110K in January, Hints at $20B TRX ‘Altseason' – Finance Redefined
Bitcoin's recovery is about to hit $105k, but Bitcoin ETFs continue to bleed.
While Bitcoin is expected to recapture its six-figure price tag, the current price action is limited by the decline in U.S. space Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Bitcoin ETFs are on a four-day losing streak, recording net outflows worth more than $338 million on December 24, data from Farside Investors shows.
Bitcoin ETF flow (USD, million). Source: Farside Investors
ETF inflows have been a big driver for Bitcoin's rally in 2024. U.S. spot ETFs account for 75% of new investment in Bitcoin, whose price surpassed the $50,000 mark on February 15.
RELATED: Ether To Break $4K Before Trump's Inauguration – Analyst
Another bullish sign can be seen in Bitcoin's funding rate, or fees for aligning futures and market prices to facilitate fair trade, which is 0.0100% on Binance, the world's largest exchange, according to CoinGlass data.
BTC Funding Rate History Chart. Source: CoinGlass
Positive funding indicates a market dominated by buyers, as buyers pay sellers a fee (a positive amount) to maintain their positions.
However, technical chart patterns suggest that Bitcoin's correction may be extended, noted crypto analyst Rect Capital wrote in a December 24 X post:
“Bitcoin showed some signs of a rally and then the price declined to a new low… In general, until the previously lost supports turn into new resistance – further downside should be expected.”
BTC/USD, 1-week chart. Source: Rect Capital
Yet, analysts are optimistic about Bitcoin's trajectory for the coming year. Improved macroeconomic conditions could fuel Bitcoin's rally to $160,000 by 2025, according to a report by crypto service provider Matrixport.
Eric Trump explains how his father moved BTC to $1M. Source: YouTube
Magazine: BTC Hits $100K, Trump Taps Paul Atkins for SEC Chair, and More: Hodler's Digest, December 1 – 7
