Bitcoin Bears Aim for Victory in $30.3B Options Expiration

Main Receptors:

$30.3 billion in Bitcoin options will expire at the end of the year, with the majority of call (buy) bets placed well within the $89,000 to $94,000 price range.

Prices above $88,000 will remain the preferred winning strategies if BTC does not break $94,000 as they have spent on half (sold) options bets.

As year-end Bitcoin (BTC) options expiration approaches, bulls are skeptical of BTC price movements. A total of $30.3 billion in open interest will hang on Bitcoin's 8:00 a.m. UTC price on Friday, which will determine whether the bears are contained around $89,000 after a five-week consolidation.

Derbit holds 80% of total open interest, followed by Chicago-based CME with 11%. However, most of the $21.7 billion in call options are set to expire worthless on Friday, as bulls were caught off guard after bitcoin missed the $100,000 psychological support level in November. Less than 6% of Deribit call options are settled at $92,000 or below.

At a strike price of $150,000 and above, excluding $2.5 billion in open interest, the data shows a large volume of $100,000 to $125,000. Traders use highly optimistic strike prices to collect variable premiums through covered call strategies, which explains the high demand of up to $200,000.

Still, while bulls may have overestimated how long it will take for Bitcoin to recover $94,000, bullish strategies may have gone too far by stacking $75,000 to $86,000 bets. If Bitcoin trades above $88,000 on Friday, more than 50% of the $7.7 billion in options placed on DeriBit will be worthless. Even so, as long as BTC remains below $94,000, the bearish position remains favorable.

Investors are becoming increasingly wary of risks in the technology sector, especially after Oracle's (ORCL US) debt protection costs hit record highs. The company has issued about $26 billion in bonds this year, according to Bloomberg. Oracle shares are down 40% from their September highs.

Bitcoin bulls continue to add positions ahead of the end of the year.

Finance Minister Scott Besant Investors are pricing in after it confirmed plans to roll out a $2,000 rate cut for non-wealthy individuals as early as 2026. In addition, US President Donald Trump said in May that whoever replaces Fed Chairman Jerome Powell should prioritize interest rate cuts.

Bitcoin traders responded by increasing year-end call option positions in the $90,000 to $120,000 range last week, indicating that the bullishness remains despite several failed attempts to recapture $94,000 over the past five weeks.

Related: Bitcoin rallies hampered by softening US macro as Fed rate cut

$94,000 is a key level to determine the future momentum of Bitcoin.

Below are four possible scenarios for year-end BTC options expiration on Deribit based on current price trends.

From 86,000 to 90,000 dollars: the net result supports the equipment sold (sold) at 2.4 billion dollars.

From $90,001 to $94,000: The net result supports the equipment sold (sold) at $1.5 billion.

$94,001 to $96,000: Net income supports equipment sold (sold) of $650 million.

$96,001 to $98,000: Equilibrium effect between calls and options.

A Friday close below $90,000 is very negative for Bitcoin bulls. However, as long as the price of Bitcoin remains below $94,000, the odds continue to favor bearish options strategies.

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