Bitcoin bounced back 4% on Iran ceasefire hopes but faces $72k resistance.
Bitcoin (BTC) rose above $71,000 in early Asian trading hours on Wednesday after the Trump administration proposed a 15-point plan to end the war with Iran, fueling short-term optimism in risk assets.
Main Receptors:
Bitcoin rose 4% to $71,500 after President Trump sent Iran a 15-point package aimed at ending the war.
Bitcoin faces strong resistance above $72,000.
Bitcoin jumps 4% on ceasefire hopes
According to data from TradingView, BTC price rose more than 4% from Tuesday's low of $68,890 to an intraday high of $71,300.
The price was that the US, through its chief mediator Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir (Chief of the Armed Forces of Pakistan), sent Iran a 15-point plan aimed at ending the war.
Key elements of the plan are a temporary ceasefire that requires Iran to dismantle or severely curtail its nuclear program, end its ballistic missile program and fully open the Strait of Hormuz to safe maritime traffic.
Meanwhile, Iran continues to deny any further negotiations after Trump delayed a deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Following the news, WTI crude oil fell 5.75% to $87 a barrel, while Brent crude fell 6% to trade at $98.
Gold extended yesterday's gains, up 2.53% on the day to trade at $4,561 at the time of writing.
This move will ease inflationary fears associated with disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with a positive impact on risk assets including Bitcoin.
Analysts have noted a quick response, with Coinbase saying bitcoin is now acting as a “real-time sensitive tool for global risk.”
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. said that BTC will “remain on the subject” until the United States and Iran send a “public signal of decline”.
Bitcoin Price Faces “Difficult Times Ahead”
Although the resurgence seems to have held BTC's upside at $72,000, the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the upper trend line of the symmetric triangle intersect.
A break above $72,000 would confirm a higher breakout of the triangle, towards the measured target of $92,400, 30% above the current price.
Glassnode's cost-base distribution heat map shows tight supply and resistance between $72,000 and $74,000, with investors gaining approximately 380,000 BTC over the past 30 days. This suggests that sellers may aggressively defend this zone.
On the flip side, dense stock sits around $65,000, while investors have already earned 160,000 BTC.
This level coincides with the lower trendline of the same triangle, which, if broken, could trigger the next leg of the triangle bearish target at $52,500.
Meanwhile, Capriole Investment's Bitcoin Macro Index dropped to -1.37, levels seen at the depth of previous bear cycles.
The chart below shows that the benchmark historically spends a year at these valuations before returning.
“Bitcoin Macro Index is in a price zone,” Charles Edwards, founder of Capriol Investments, said on XPost on Wednesday.
“In all previous cases, prices first fell to deep values before rebounding, suggesting that we may have more difficult times ahead.”
According to Cointelegraph, traders are warning of a second bearish flag failure that could clear the way for another sell-off below $50,000.
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