Bitcoin Bull runs ‘still early’ as BTC remains below key level
Bitcoin is trading below the profitability threshold for active owners, with BTC demand signals providing some price support for now.
Bitcoin (BTC) rose above $76,000 on Wednesday, but Glassnode analyst data suggests it's too early to call for a new bull market.
New capital inflows have remained weak, with Bitcoin's growth rate negative for all 105 trading days in 2026, reflecting the contrast between steady price action and limited new demand.
Bitcoin's profitability signal remains unresolved
Glassnode analyst CryptoViz.art uses the True Market Average (TMM) to estimate the average cost base of active BTC investors. The measure divides investors' capitalization into lifestyle-adjusted circulating supply, filtering out underperforming coins and lost supply.
Bitcoin broke below this level on January 31 and stayed there for 75 days. The move has put the average in a losing position with a 20% high decline and a current gap of about 5% below the entry level.
Historical comparisons show 10 similar breaks since 2016, ranging in duration from two days to 11 months. In the 2018–2019 and 2022–2023 cycles, deep dives reached 57%, while the March 2020 event saw a 40% drop in 49 days. The analyst added,
“That said, it's still 75 days away. The 2018 and 2022 classes aren't down for another 5-9 months. The signal isn't “all clear” – it'll be closely watched.”
TMM's recovery, currently at $78,013, is key for active investors to return to profits, and is aligned with momentum resets in previous cycles.
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BTC capital outflows shape the price ceiling.
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. suggests a steady outflow of capital from the BTC market. The 365-day market price growth relative to actual cap remained negative for the 105 trading days in 2026, with the last reading being -0.000652.
Simply put, the market isn't attracting enough new money to support higher prices.
The 30-day guaranteed cap change shows a similar trend. Only seven days have seen positive flow this year, all in the short span of mid-January. Since January 23, the gauge has remained negative, although it has improved slightly to -0.32% from an early April low of -0.54%.
It fell to $1.08 trillion from $1.12 trillion since the beginning of the year, a decrease of 3.23 percent.
Adler Jr. said the recent correction was a slowdown in BTC flows, not a bullish reversal. A meaningful change requires both parameters to become positive and remain greater than zero.
Related: Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin Fund Surpasses WisdomTree After 6 Trading Days
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