Bitcoin bulls fight to hold $70,000, data signals weakness

Main Receptors:

Bearish Bitcoin futures premium and low call option odds suggest traders are skeptical despite BTC's short 4% support rally.

High oil prices and cautious Fed policy continue to weigh on riskier assets, while benchmarks for Bitcoin derivatives point to a lack of delinquency.

Bitcoin (BTC) rose 4% after US President Donald Trump expressed his desire to temporarily de-escalate the conflict with Iran and pursue negotiations. Bitcoin derivatives benchmarks continued to show uncertainty and lack of confidence at the $68,000 support level as oil prices fell 14% to $85 per barrel of WTI and the S&P 500 rose 3%.

Bitcoin futures were trading at a 2% annual premium to regular spot markets on Monday, indicating a lack of bullish interest. In isolated cases, this indicator typically ranges from 4% to 8% to compensate for longer settlement times. This delinquency of bulls has been typical of the past month, even with the recent rally to $76,000 on Tuesday.

The short-term gains failed to compensate for the pain of Bitcoin for five months

Short-term positive updates on the US and the Israel-Iran war are unlikely to reverse the pessimism that followed the five-month decline. In the year October 10, 2025 Traders will treat any development with great skepticism as the causes of Bitcoin's flash crash and its inability to track traditional markets remain uncertain.

This huge sell-off comes as the U.S. increased tariffs on Chinese imports, including 100% tariffs, after China restricted exports of rare earth metals. But the unprecedented $19 billion in outflows has taken a heavy toll, leading to huge losses for market makers and traders taking advantage of margin positions.

On the Deribit exchange, an $80,000 Bitcoin call option for April 24 traded at 0.017 BTC ($1,207). With 31 days to expiration and implied volatility of 48%, the market is expecting a price of Bitcoin with only a 20% chance of reaching $80,000. This low expectation of 13% monthly profit is rare in cryptocurrency markets where participants are generally more optimistic.

The US dollar stablecoin is trading at a 1.3% premium to the official US dollar to the yuan, indicating there is no significant imbalance between buying and selling interest in the region. Typically, high cryptocurrency demand pushes this premium above the 1.5% neutral range, and panic selling causes stable coins to trade at a discount.

The Federal Reserve's decision to end interest rate cuts will provide investors with fixed income

The data shows that there is some resistance in Bitcoin derivatives markets, especially as BTC retested the $67,500 level on Monday. Gold's historic 21 percent drop in ten days has proven that no asset class is safe as traders fear recession and inflation, especially as oil prices affect logistics and all sectors of the US economy.

Related: Bitcoin Spot Volumes Drop to 2023 Lows as News-Led BTC Rally

Monday's 3% easing in the S&P 500 is unlikely to cause investors to exit fixed income positions, especially as the Fed has given little indication of continuing its monetary easing policy. High interest rates reduce incentives for consumer financing and create a burden on firms' capital expenditures.

Undoubtedly, there is a high reliance on risk assets, including Bitcoin, during the war. Until oil prices return to $75 or below, traders are likely to tread cautiously, but additional incentives may emerge for Bitcoin traders to move into bullion, especially given the lack of conviction in onchain and derivatives benchmarks.