Bitcoin Could Return to $85K as CME ‘Smart Money’ Cuts Short Bets
Bitcoin (BTC) moved lower after CME futures estimates for April 2025 changed. A similar reversal of position is seen again in 2026, increasing the chances of BTC price recovery in the coming weeks.
Main Receptors:
BTC futures, technicians hint at a price target of $85,000
According to the CFTC's Commitment of Traders (COT) report published last week, non-commercial Bitcoin futures traders have cut their net positions from about +1,000 to -1,600 contracts a month ago.
In practice, this means that large speculators, including hedge funds and similar financial institutions, have moved from the network short to long, with bulls outnumbering bears on the CME.
The rapid net-short windfall suggests the “smart money” added longs “with urgency,” said analyst Tom McClellan, referring to two similar previous swings that preceded bitcoin's price spikes.
For example, BTC price gained about 70% after a sharp dip in CME Bitcoin Futures net shorts in April 2025. By 2023, the price of BTC has increased by more than 190% under similar futures market conditions.
Since February, the smart money's swing has flashed once again, just as Bitcoin defends the 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA, blue line), which has served as a bear-market floor during most major drawdowns of the past decade.
On Sunday, BTC's 200-week EMA was hovering around $68,350.
The last time Bitcoin traded around this moving average during deep sell-offs (in 2015, 2018 and 2020) signaled the end of the bearish streak and the start of a new recovery phase.
Related: Bitcoin Historical Price Benchmark Sees $122K ‘Average Return' Over 10 Months
Bitcoin's weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in oversold territory, a sign that selling pressure is nearing exhaustion.
This further increases the chances of Bitcoin recovery in the coming weeks. A decisive retracement from the 200-week EMA to the 100-week EMA (the purple wave) at $85,000 is likely through April.
The Bitcoin bulls are not out of the woods yet.
McClellan cautioned that the smart money shift is “a condition, not a sign,” meaning bitcoin could still slide from its current price levels before long-term lows form.
That could trigger the 2022 scenario, which saw BTC fall more than 40% after breaking below the 200-week EMA.
In the year A repeat of that 40% drop in 2026 could send BTC's price down to $40,000, or 60% from its record high of $126,270.
Some analysts, including Kaiko, see that BTC could drop to $40,000-$50,000 based on the “four-year cycle” framework.
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