Bitcoin ETF Flows Rise as Gold Demand Cools: What’s Next for BTC?

Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows have turned positive over the past 30 days, while gold ETF demand has started to slow after nine straight months of inflows. The shift comes even as the price of gold continues to rise and sentiment around Bitcoin fades.

With these contrasting trends in ETF flows and the historical pattern of Bitcoin-to-gold performance cycles, analysts are now examining data that indicates a gradual shift in investor interest between the two assets.

Are ETF flows starting to turn around?

According to Kobeisi Letter, the US gold-backed GLD recorded outflows of $3 billion on Wednesday, the largest daily outflow in more than two years. The move followed a 4.4% decline in gold prices, marking the biggest decline since the January 30 sell-off.

Gold ETFs attracted $18.7 billion in January and another $5.3 billion in February, the strongest two-month start on record and extending a nine-month run of flows. Recent flows suggest a time for investors to take profits after the big gold rally in 2025.

Bitcoin ETF flows have moved in the opposite direction over the past month. The 30-day net flow on February 6 changed from expenses of $1.9 billion to revenues of $273 million.

The measured occupancy data in native units clearly shows the difference. Bitcoin ETF balances moved from -42,275 BTC to a net gain of 4,021 BTC on March 6.

The native units represent the actual assets held by the funds rather than their dollar value. Tracking BTC or Ounces identifies true inventory or distribution without price movements.

Horizon's head of development, Joe Consorti, summed up the current trend

“Gold Is Losing While Bitcoin Is Rising. As the US Economy Accelerates and Risk Sentiment Improves, BTC Is About to Outpace Gold's % Growth Over the Last Month. Expected Risk → Risk Ride May Take Place.”

RELATED: Bitcoin's Dip May Not End When Retail Buys Under $70K

Gold rallies ahead of Bitcoin recovery

In his “2026 Look Ahead” report released at the end of December 2025, Fidelity Digital Assets analyst Chris Kuiper noted that gold's 65 percent return by 2025 would be the fourth largest annual gain since the end of the gold standard. Regarding past rallies, Kuiper Gold may be at the end of a leading cycle between the two assets. Kuiper said.

“Historically, gold and bitcoin have taken turns outperforming each other. It would not be surprising to see bitcoin continue to lead the way in 2025 as gold continues to shine.”

However, the rotation may take some time to appear in the market.

As shown in the chart, BTC needs approximately 147 days or 21 weeks to establish a sustained trend above gold after the Bitcoin 2022 bottom. The period indicated a consolidation phase prior to the start of the period with the ratio trending higher.

The BTC-Gold ratio is currently trading near the consolidation zone seen in the earlier reversal levels of 2022-2023.

Kuiper added that both assets could benefit from persistent fiscal deficits, trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty as investors look for independent stores of value outside of traditional financial systems.

The ongoing US-Israel-Iran war has strengthened demand for traditional safe-haven assets that have previously supported gold rallies during periods of geopolitical tension.

Meanwhile, macroeconomist strategist Lynn Alden expects bitcoin to outperform gold over the next two to three years after gold's recent rally over the past few months.

Related: Don't expect profits for at least 3 years when buying Bitcoin: data