Bitcoin ETF Income Rising, Will BTC Price Follow?
Main Receptors:
As selling by public miners offset recent institutional buying, BTC failed to hold $70,000 despite strong ETF flows.
17% of the premium signals cautious sentiment, so the options markets reflect a strong demand for lower protection.
Bitcoin (BTC) failed to sustain Monday's $70,000 level despite $471 million in net inflows into US-listed exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The market's euphoria was dampened by the destruction of several US and Israeli aircraft and equipment in a military operation in Iran over the weekend.
Since the S&P 500 was relatively flat between Friday and Tuesday, Bitcoin's inability to sustain its bullish momentum may have stemmed from other factors.
US-listed Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $471 million on Monday, the highest in more than five weeks; However, the trend over the past two weeks has been quiet, indicating a lack of conviction. One concern for traders is the recent sell-off of Bitcoin by publicly listed miners.
Bitcoin mining and digital asset treasury companies put BTC under pressure.
Mara Holdings (MARA US) transferred 250 BTC on Tuesday, according to Lookonchain data. MARA previously announced a sale of 15,133 BTC in March and reported holding a total of 38,689 BTC. Traders fear further sales pressure as many miners focus on cutting debt to support a strategic shift to AI computing data centers.
Riot Platforms (RIOT US) transferred 1,500 BTC for sale in the first week of April, according to Arkham data. With the latest operational update, the company holds 15,680 BTC, reinforcing ongoing liquidity fears as higher energy costs negatively impact operations.
Other addresses linked to major miners sold 265 BTC on Tuesday after accumulating since early 2024, Lookonchain reported. The address 3PFNdgGi…myCh139 still holds 112 BTC. Regardless of the reason behind these moves, the sentiment has worsened since Bitcoin's hashrate dropped from 1,083 exahashes to 953 exahashes in late February.
Strategy (MSTR US) continues to accumulate 4,871 BTC in total Bitcoin in the last week alone. However, investors are afraid that after two months of bear market there will be few buyers left, especially since companies that have raised debt to collect bitcoins will face great pressure and will be forced to sell some of their reserves.
Among the companies that reduced their Bitcoin holdings in the past month were Sequential Communications ( SQNS FR ) and Nakamoto Inc. ( NAKA US ). More concerning, according to BitcoinTreasuries data, a handful of other listed companies, including GD Culture Group (GDC US) and OranjeBTC (OBTC3 BR), experienced losses of 35% or more on their Bitcoin holdings.
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Bitcoin options markets signaled discomfort on Tuesday as options (puts) traded at a 17% premium to call (buys) instruments. Traders believe that whales have a better market gauge, but the options are skewed when regular traders consistently buy low resistance instead of buying pre-planned moves from market makers.
There's no indication that professional traders are leaning bearish, but a day's strong ETF net inflows doesn't necessarily mean institutional interest is high. So, even if the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz raises risk markets, chances are Bitcoin will struggle to maintain levels above $75,000 in terms of risk-on sentiment.
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