Bitcoin Faces Bear Market in 2026
Bitcoin is currently experiencing the early stages of a bear market based on several chain and market indicators. This trend is expected to continue through 2026, when prices are likely to decline rather than reach new all-time highs.
Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, in a chat with BeCrypto, cited weak demand as the main reason for this view.
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The data on the chain confirms the bear market
While many investors are still debating whether a broader crypto bear market is ahead, Moreno says bitcoin will enter as early as November 2025.
“Essentially every on-chain metric or market gauge confirms that we're in a bear market in the early stages,” he said in an episode of the BeInCrypto podcast.
According to him, this is just the beginning. Expect prices to come down in the coming months.
“The question is how long it will last or how much it will go down, but I don't expect new all-time highs from where we started,” Moreno added.
Moreno's bearish outlook is driven not only by price action, but by fundamentals that he believes show continued weakness going forward.
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The Bitcoin demand engine began to break down
Bitcoin has been experiencing a structural decline in demand over the past several months. To monitor this, CryptoQuant has been monitoring the flow of exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Between 2024 and 2025, Bitcoin demand was supported by several strong, identifiable spikes. When US spot Bitcoin ETFs first launched, they saw sustained institutional inflows and a sharp increase in demand.
The deregulation in the United States by President Donald Trump has further strengthened risk appetite.
However, this demand is now waning.
“ETFs have been sellers of Bitcoin since at least the beginning of November,” Moreno added.
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This lack of interest was seen in other ways as well.
The danger of forced selling came into focus
In the past year, the cryptocurrency market has seen an increase in companies taking Bitcoin as a treasury asset.
Leading Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), companies such as MetaPlanet, Twenty One Capital and MARA Holdings followed a similar rallying book.
However, this rush to buy has faded.
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“Other than Microstrategy, basically all Bitcoin treasury companies have stopped buying. If the price continues to decline, there is a high risk that we will see some companies being forced to sell their holdings,” Moreno told BeinCrypto.
It is the risk of forced selling that can act as a catalyst for downside volatility.
According to Moreno, Bitcoin could reach a low of $56,000.
Despite the downside risks, Moreno stressed that Bitcoin's long-term outlook ultimately depends on whether demand can recover.
“The moment demand stops contracting and starts growing again, that's when the market structure changes,” he said.
Until that shift is seen across the chain, the most effective approach to marketing is caution.
