Bitcoin Hangs on $46K BTC Price Support – Research
As Bitcoin (BTC) faces a crucial support battle, it's “make or break time,” a new study warns.
US investment management firm ARK Invest said in its latest monthly report that key BTC price levels are now $52,000 and $46,000.
The price of BTC is waiting for “very important” floor levels
Bitcoin has failed to rally significantly since closing down nearly 9% in August, with ARK Invest broadly speaking and bulls having plenty to worry about.
BTC/USD is no longer respecting the classic bull market support levels of the 200-day moving average and short-term owner cost base, at $63,693 and $63,245, respectively, according to the report.
A chart showing average reversal levels leaves Onchain's retracement level around $46,000 as a last possibility, with ARK describing the overall position as “depressed”.
“At the moment, the most important price supports of bitcoin are at $52,000 and $46,000, the latter is confirmed by the chain average and is the red line on the chart,” confirms the accompanying opinion.
BTC/USD Average Reversal Chart (Snapshot). Source: ARK Invest
Like short-term holders, the term given to Bitcoin's more speculative group of hodlers, institutional investors also suffer unrealized losses.
U.S. position holders in Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), ARK calculates, risk being in the red eight months after launch.
“At the end of August, the estimated cost basis of U.S. spot ETF participants was higher than the price of bitcoin, suggesting that the average ETF investor could be at a loss,” he says.
US spot Bitcoin ETF data (screenshot). Source: ARK Invest
The risk of a Bitcoin bear market
Despite the gloom, positive aspects of the current market situation have emerged.
Related: Is crypto entering a bear market? – 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
ARK: BTC price declines sticking to historical norms, low levels of short-term bond liquidity, and favorable macroeconomic conditions point to reasons for optimism.
The Bitcoin MVRV Z-score, which compares market value to its cost base, also resides in “bull market territory.”
“At the end of August, the MVRV Z-Score was 1.6, compared to an average of 1.42,” the report states.
“The average serves as a demarcation point between a bull market and an upcoming bear market.”
Bitcoin MVRV Z-score (screenshot). Source: ARK Invest
BTC/USD was trading around $58,000 at the time of writing on September 13, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, down 1.9% month over month.
BTC/USD 4-Hour Chart. Source: TradingView
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and business activity involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.
