Bitcoin hits 2-year high, but derivatives traders aren’t betting on further gains.

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) finally moved higher in the upper 5% range after 12 days of trading, fluctuating between $50,430 and $52,970. The 12.7% rally in 24 hours hit a record high of $57,380, the highest level in more than two years, resulting in a whopping $313 million in short (selling) liquidity. However, Bitcoin derivatives benchmarks indicate that professional traders are not particularly bullish and some have even opted for defensive options.

As downside risk increases, inflows into Spot Bitcoin ETFs may decrease.

Fortunately for the bulls, Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) continue to accumulate coins at an impressive pace. According to a post on the X social network, @HODL15Capital announced that they have acquired a total of 18,331 bitcoins worth over $970 million in the last three business days alone. BlackRock topped $7 billion in holdings, Fidelity at $5 billion, more than offsetting the outflows from grayscale GBTC, whose 1.5% fee is much higher than the competition.

Bitcoin bears are getting complacent as the US economy is headed for a recession, a sentiment shared by JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon. In the year The CEO of JPMorgan said the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to start tapering soon, but Dimon doesn't think there are any parallels to the 2008 financial crisis.

If Jamie Dimon is right and the Fed is more likely to keep interest rates higher than the market expects, this will have a negative impact on stock markets. First, companies face higher costs to refinance their debt, as interest rates two years ago were around 1.5%. More importantly, investors will have little incentive to exit fixed income positions, as the current 2-year U.S. Treasury yield is 4.7%, which is 3% higher than U.S. inflation.

Such a situation is not particularly favorable for Bitcoin, as traders may not be able to continue to accumulate if fears of a recession grow. Despite Bitcoin's scarcity and lack of correlation to the stock market, investors seek shelter in US Treasuries anytime there is uncertainty. Therefore, building a favorable case for cryptocurrencies is challenging, as the market still views them as risky assets.

Bitcoin derivatives metrics show a reasonable level of uncertainty

To understand how professional traders have relied on Bitcoin derivatives, one should start the analysis with BTC monthly futures contracts. In independent markets, these instruments sell at a premium of 5% to 10% to compensate for their extended settlement period.

The data shows that the annualized BTC futures premium has been consistently between 13% and 18% over the past week, which is considered healthy and moderately bullish. In addition, there is no indication of profit-driven inflation, indicating that there is no risk of increasing liquidity.

RELATED: GBTC hits all-time low of $22M, sparking hope of end to Bitcoin bleeding

Traders should analyze the Bitcoin options markets to assess whether the recent rally has triggered strategies aimed at resisting a price correction. To overcome this, the difference in demand between calls (buying) and puts (selling) should be monitored.

Specifically, the period from February 20 to February 26 saw a 15% drop in demand for defensive options relative to call options. In contrast, last week saw an average spread of 42% in call options, indicating strong confidence in Bitcoin's price.

From a momentum perspective, professional traders are caught as Bitcoin breaks above the $52,500 resistance. At the same time, bears take comfort in knowing that whales and market makers are skeptical of the recent rally, according to derivatives benchmarks. Is the path to $60,000 still open? Certainly, but it will be a surprise to most professional Bitcoin traders.

This article is not intended for general information purposes and should not be construed as legal or investment advice. The views, ideas and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.