Bitcoin is still down 10% post-halving
Bitcoin (BTC) is taking more time than ever to make a new all-time high after its recent halving, noted trader Peter Brandt has warned.
In his latest analysis on X, Brandt also noted that Bitcoin's all-time high before 2021 is still inflation-adjusted.
Brandt: Bitcoin suffers from “lack of energy”.
BTC's price action has disappointed bulls and frustrated new investors since the last US dollar rally in mid-March.
Not only has the market failed to match that $73,800 level since then, Brandt notes, but it has already halved from the block subsidy recorded in April, the longest period without a return to price discovery.
“I measure cycles differently than most,” he said, referring to the difference between macro highs and lows and halvings in BTC price cycles.
“My cycle starts at the pre-bear market low (November 22). Then realize that the cycle is high before it halves (March 24) starting from the pre-low. Not only was this peak unbroken, but the peak in inflation-adjusted inflation remained unchanged.
Source: Peter Brandt
That outlook lends additional weight to $69,000 – the 2021 high – as strong resistance should BTC/USD continue to recover.
In subsequent discussions, however, Brandt emphasized that this does not mean that Bitcoin has been at a low level since then.
BTC price crash and dark eclipse Fed rate cut
Others see Bitcoin far out of the woods this month.
Related: Bitcoin price targets include $50K as Nvidia crashes Nikkei, gold
Onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant suggested this week that even with the US monetary policy easing to begin, BTC's price movements will be “stressful”.
“A short-term recovery in positive market sentiment can be expected due to the expected US base rate cut on September 18, but unless market conditions change significantly, bearish moves are likely to continue in 2024,” wrote contributor Crypto Dan in a Quicktake blog post.
It is unfortunate that the pessimism continues, but it seems necessary to wait for 2025 with long breath and patience.
According to Cointelegraph, one forecast sees the Federal Reserve's expected September interest rate cut for Bitcoin as much as 20%.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and business activity involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.
