Bitcoin ‘Miner Exodus’ Risks Crashing BTC Price Below $60K
A Bitcoin (BTC) metric that tracks the cost of electricity per coin is flashing a warning for bulls, while the so-called “mining breakout” adds to the bearish outlook.
Main Receptors:
BTC may fall to the $59,000-$74,000 mining cost zone.
A major drop in hash rate usually precedes the Bitcoin Energy price of $121,000.
Mining data hints BTC may drop below $60,000.
In the year In January, the estimated cost of electricity to mine one bitcoin averaged $59,450, while the net production cost was about $74,300, according to data from crypto-focused hedge fund Capriole Investments.
Bitcoin was trading around $82,500 on Friday, still above miners' expectations.
Even if the price falls below the average price, many miners will be able to continue working. The market has room to drop to the $74,300–$59,450 zone before they feel real pain, said Charles Edwards, founder of Caprile Investments.
“This has widened the possibility of a near-term decline,” he said, referring to the ongoing “Bitcoin mining exodus” behind the bearish outlook.
Related: Bitcoin Loses Crucial $84K Support: How Low Can BTC Price Go?
Bitcoin's hash rate has dropped by mid-2025, according to some analysts, as BTC miners shift their resources to power AI operations instead. Conversely, others blamed the US winter storm for the BTC hash rate crash.
Hash rate dips can be strong for Bitcoin.
According to Sey Labs founder Jeff Feng, Bitcoin's hash rate has slowed and is back.
As some miners shut down, the network will experience less mining difficulty from time to time. This makes it easier and cheaper for the rest of the miners to get BTC, which makes the network more stable.
After China's 2021 mining ban, for example, the hashrate dropped by 50%, and BTC slipped from $64,000 to $29,000. But the price returned to $69,000 in five months.
Bitcoin's fair value was around $120,950 as of Friday, according to the power value, a metric that estimates Bitcoin's fair value based on the network's energy and production inputs.
Historically, BTC returns to its bullish value after a long downtrend.
For Bitcoin, that suggests the price could drop from $74,300 to $59,450, and any rebound could trigger a reversion to the energy price's moving average.
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