Bitcoin must hold above $80,000 for mining to remain profitable post-halving.
According to the information obtained by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, the cost of mining using Antminer S19 XPs will increase from $40,000 to $80,000 after the Bitcoin halving in mid-April.
A Bitcoin halving is a critical event that occurs approximately every 210,000 blocks, or every four years. The halving event halves the rewards earned by miners.
In addition to indirectly affecting the price of Bitcoin (BTC), the halving event has a significant impact on mining behavior, as mining costs double to obtain the same amount of BTC.
After the May 2020 halving, the price at which miners can remain profitable has risen above $30,000, but the price of BTC has risen to a new all-time high of $69,000 during the same cycle.
The average Bitcoin mining cost on April 6 is $49,902, and at the time of writing, the price of BTC is over $70,000. After the April 20 cut, average mining costs will rise above $80,000, and for miners to remain profitable, the price of BTC must trade above that price.
Historically, BTC prices have seen multiple price jumps after halvings. In the year Following the 2012 halving, Bitcoin's price increased by around 9,000% to $1,162.
After the 2016 halving, the Bitcoin price increased by 4,200% to $19,800, and after the 2020 halving, the Bitcoin price increased by 683% to $69,000.
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So after every halving, miners continue to be profitable, even though they fear going out of business. Half of the time, multiple mining machines are unable to compete with the high hashing power demands, rendering them obsolete.
After each halving, there comes a time when the price of BTC remains below the miner's profitable price. This period is characterized by uncertainty and increased mining sales, coupled with many small and lone miners often out of business.
However, due to the decrease in the market supply, as the demand increases, the price increases and often the mining costs are higher than the average costs.
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