Bitcoin ‘Oversold’ Weekly RSI Hints at 2026 BTC Price Eater

BTC traders expected a short-term swing as the benchmark BTC price dropped to a three-year low. Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed extremely “sold” conditions on the BTC/USD Relative Strength Index (RSI).

Main Receptors:

Bitcoin's “oversold” RSI, which is historically tied to major BTC price rallies, suggests a near-term price reversal.

The value-to-transaction ratio of the Bitcoin network shows that it is undervalued at current levels.

BTC price drop sends RSI to 2023

Bitcoin's 36% fall to $80,500 on November 21st hit the all-time high of $126,000 on the high-hours RSI.

RELATED: Bitcoin rebounds on rising Japanese prices as Arthur Hayes sees dollar at 200 yen

On the weekly chart, the RSI dropped to 35 from its all-time high in September.

“Historically, when the weekly RSI gives this level, it's time to pay attention,” analyst Jelle said in an X article on Friday.

“Either we're going to go down or we're going to be in more pain soon.”

The RSI measures the strength of a trend and holds three key levels for observers: the 30 oversold threshold, the 50 midpoint, and the 70 overbought threshold.

When the price crosses these levels, as a guide, traders can comment on a given bullish or bearish future. During bull markets, ETH typically spends extended periods in overbought territory.

“Bitcoin looks more overvalued than it has all cycle,” Mr. Crypto said in a Friday X post, citing the stochastic RSI, which is also shown on the two-week chart below.

“Hitting is very likely.”

Not all traders were quick to point out that the BTC price was due for relief due to overbought conditions.

“This is when $BTC is oversold in 2018, dropping another 49% and dropping another 58% in 2022,” said YouTube's Lark Davis on X Post, suggesting Bitcoin could drop another 40%.

“These bottoms can take longer to form than you think, and cause more pain than you think.”

As reported by Cointelegraph, large liquidity pools above the spot price support a short-term BTC/USD reversal scenario.

Bitcoin currently has a low price of $87,000

Onchain data provider CryptoQuant has revealed how much Bitcoin can currently depreciate in terms of Network Value to Transaction (NVT), a metric that compares market value to actual network usage.

The chart below shows that Bitcoin's NVT golden cross has dipped below the historical depression level near -0.6, a “zone that reflects the structural value of the network,” said CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_ in his latest Quicktake analysis.

The gauge has risen slightly to -0.32 over the past few days, an indicator that prices are beginning to align with trading-based fundamentals after a sharp decline in valuations.

However, “the indicator remains in negative territory, which means that Bitcoin is still overpriced relative to its network utility,” the analyst added.

“The current setup points to a market transitioning from deep underpricing to equilibrium, which has historically been associated with accumulation and structurally sound price discovery.”

“The price is recovering now, but the value in terms of usage is still discounted,” said analyst Cryptos Russ in an analysis for MorenoDV_.

“That setup has only been seen a few times in Bitcoin history.”

Note that the last two times the NVT Golden Cross reached such levels were at the bottom of the bear market in April 2025 and 2022, before 60% and 350% BTC price rallies.

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