Bitcoin Power Law gives $65,000 as a key bear market level
If 2026 is a known bear market year, Bitcoin (BTC) will face a “do-or-die” price point.
Key Points:-
Bitcoin's four-year price cycles and bear markets remain significant, according to the latest Power Law analysis.
2026 could see BTC price support show with $65,000 as a key level.
History requires the “capture” of power law targets.
Bitcoin bear markets to stay around
A new analysis by Jurien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, has broken $65,000 as the next key BTC price war.
After embracing the power law trend for most of the current bull market, BTC/USD may now be due to retest the lower support line – currently at $45,000.
“The Internet is following the S-curve much more closely than the power law curve,” Timmer said.
The law of power attempts to “fair value” a price, and history shows that the move to the support line has often been accompanied by long-term bottoms.
“For now, the line in the sand for Bitcoin is $65k (the former high), and below that is $45k. The latter is a power law trend,” Timmer continued.
“That's still a long way off, but if Bitcoin consolidates for next year, that trend could be closer to $65k and could be the do-o-die line in the sand for Bitcoin.”
Whether Bitcoin is still subject to four-year price cycles has been questioned. For Timmer, half-cycles are getting lower and lower over time, but bear markets still happen.
In response, CEO David Inge agreed that bear markets are set to continue to be a feature of Bitcoin as a mature asset.
“The idea that Bitcoin ‘graduated' to a no-bear-market S-curve price regime misunderstands how prices are formed,” he argued.
“Bitcoin is a fixed asset in the financial system, not a solitary S-curve like the Internet.”
Eng added that bitcoin now experiences longer price cycles and general volatility.
A “compressed” BTC price needs to be revalued
As Cointelegraph reports, four-year cycles have become a topic of debate among the Bitcoin community since 2025 ended in the red.
Related: Bitcoin RSI hints at $105K BTC price rebound as bull signals multiply
BTC/USD hasn't ended the post-half-year period less than it started, and responses include discarding the cyclical theory altogether.
But the engineer predicts that a “compressed” power law reading will call for an upward rally.
“Bitcoin is not going to stop bending below its long-term growth law, and history tells us that resolution comes from holding the price, not giving the law,” he told X followers this weekend.
Bitcoin is compressed under the law of growth, and compression always resolves upwards.
Bitcoin still obeys a single power law with exceptional stability (R² ≈ 0.96) for 15+ years of bubbles and crashes, not systemic changes.
• Space (~$90.5k) is ~25% below… pic.twitter.com/OWVwG4Vgas
— David 🇺🇸 (@david_eng_mba) January 10, 2026
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