Bitcoin Price Analysis Sees 2021 Record High Rematch With S&P 500
BTC price gains against US stocks are due to Bitcoin (BTC) “gaining focus”, according to a new analysis.
In a recent blog post published on October 19th, Caleb Franzen, founder of financial research resource Cubic Analytics, sees the potential for a major BTC price collapse.
The “most effective” BTC price tool seeks profit
Bitcoin should recover to match the recent performance of US stocks as the S&P 500 notes retraces all-time highs.
For Franzen, who compared BTC/USD to the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP), the writing may be on the wall.
“Comparatively, Bitcoin has failed to produce new ATH's and the equally weighted S&P 500. In fact, BTC/RSP has been rejected by previous ATHs since 2021 and has been consolidating ever since, which I have illustrated as a regression channel,” he wrote with an accompanying chart.
“However… that BTC/RSP is starting to break above that retracement channel.”
BTC/USD 1-week chart from RSP. Source: Cubic Analysis
Franzen therefore saw an option for traders to go short RSP and long BTC next.
“Based on this structure, a sustained crash indicates a return to the blue zone,” he continued.
“To be clear, that blue zone still has real resistance, but it's also a price target.”
Franzen reinforced his bullish outlook for BTC/USD using the Williams%R Oscillator, a trend strength tool that spans multiple timeframes.
In this case, the 120-day retracement bounced back from macro lows in the “oversold” zone in July, signaling further upside ahead.
“As we can see, this signal is rare and very effective,” he concluded.
Similar lows occurred in January 2024 and October 2023. In those instances, BTC/USD gained 48% and 123%, respectively, over the next three months.
“With Bitcoin currently trading at its highest price since July 2024, investors are gaining confidence in the potential to continue, especially in stocks at all-time highs.”
BTC/USD 1-day chart with Williams%R Oscillator data. Source: Cubic Analysis
The excitement of the Bitcoin crash gathers pace
As reported by Cointelegraph, BTC price forecasts support a new macro in 2025, but see short-term pants continuing to the upside.
Related: 3 Signs Bitcoin's ‘Parabolic Phase' Is About to Begin With $250K Target
Now warming below $69,000, the last resistance stands between the spot price and a return to price discovery—albeit the resistance from March.
Since then, the first daily closes over a channel down on the scene has been fueling the bully narrative.
Commenting this weekend, prominent trader and analyst Rect Capital emphasized the importance of BTC's current price movements.
“History was made as Bitcoin recorded its first daily candle close above the red resistance,” he told X followers along with an explanatory chart.
“Bitcoin will now try to test the edge of this resistance towards new support. Overall, Bitcoin should stay above $66400 (black channel high) to enjoy a weekly close.”
BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and business activity involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.
