Bitcoin Price Eye 12% Separation – But One Group Is Not Convinced
The Bitcoin hack story is a work in progress, but the hype required isn't pure. Bitcoin price has regained key trend support, history supports continuation, and short selling has dried up.
However, each push is a higher meeting offer. The reason is not clear from the price alone. A holding team is still selling into strength, and this could raise the next leg.
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The broken structure is still there
Bitcoin is trading in a cup and bear structure on the daily chart. The price was briefly pushed to a breakout of the bearish near $92,400 before pulling back, but the formation remains viable as long as key support remains.
The most important support signal is the 20-day EMA. The EMA, or exponential moving average, gives more weight to recent prices and helps determine short-term trend direction. Bitcoin retook the 20-day EMA on January 10 and was followed by two green daily candles. This order is important.
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In December, Bitcoin failed to retrace the 20-day EMA twice, on December 3 and December 9, both times, as the next candlestick turned red. On January 1, the recovery was followed by another green candle. That move resulted in a nearly 7% rally.
The same setup is now being recreated. As long as Bitcoin holds above the 20-day EMA, the bullish theory remains on track. But the display offer for the long-top wheels near $92,400 is still active. That begs the question: Who is selling it?
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Short- and long-term holders are quiet, not ultra-long holders
On-chain data can help answer that question.
Short-term selling pressure has collapsed. Expenditure Coins' Age Band data, which highlights group-specific coin activity, shows that activity in the 7-day to 30-day group has fallen sharply, from 24,800 BTC to just 1,328 BTC, a 95% drop since January 8.
Regular holder net position change turned positive on December 26. These holders, often considered long-term investors (holding for 155 days or more), have been net buyers since then and continued to buy even when Bitcoin peaked on January 5.
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Sales come from a different group.
Long-term holder net position change, which tracks ultra-long holders with well-held coins for more than a year, remains negative. On January 1st, this group distributed approximately 286,700 BTC. By January 11, that sale had dropped to 109,200 BTC, a drop of more than 60 percent. Selling pressure is easing, but has not yet turned into buying.
This explains the hesitation near resistance. Short-sellers are gone, long-term investors are buying, but ultra-long-term holders are still distributing ample supply for value.
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Bitcoin price levels that hold the key
Bitcoin now needs a clean daily close above $92,400 to pave the way to $94,870. Clearing that zone will complete the special story and move the measured 12% up target. That projects to around $106,630.
For this to happen, Bitcoin needs to stay above the 20-day EMA and prevent super-long bear selling from pushing the price back.
On the upside, $89,230 is key support. A daily close below it weakens the breakout structure. A deeper drop to $84,330 would completely destroy the bullish configuration.
For now, Bitcoin's comparative history is still a work in progress. The only missing piece is guilt from the old owners. Once that group stops selling, the delayed breakout can move quickly.
