Bitcoin price metrics forecast rally to $100K and more – here’s why.

Bitcoin (BTC) increased by 16% from November 11 to November 13, surpassing the $93,000 mark for the first time. Although this is a record high, some traders, including some Bitcoin miners, believe that the momentum may weaken as sellers begin to take profits.

Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, stated that some Bitcoin miners started to make profits on November 12, although this activity remained at normal levels. The trend was observed when examining specific entities holding 100 BTC or more.

However, four key indicators suggest that Bitcoin's rally will remain strong. These derivatives include data and the view of the US dollar.

As U.S. Treasury yields rise, investors demand higher returns on these fixed-income securities. Essentially, this indicates that holders anticipate rising inflation or increased government spending, both of which cause Treasury holdings to fall in value. Either way, the rise in yields reflects a decline in confidence in the US financial position.

Some investors argue that the recent strengthening of the U.S. dollar against other major currencies—such as the euro, yen, and Swiss franc—could have a negative impact on Bitcoin's value. However, this inverse relationship is no longer relevant.

The launch of a $54 billion Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) established Bitcoin as a distinct store of value.

A strong US dollar against other global currencies is directly correlated to the performance of the stock market, which itself is only correlated to the price of Bitcoin. This dynamic comes as investors view the US economy more favorably than other major economies, leading to expectations for stronger corporate earnings.

Bitcoin derivatives suggest further crash rate

Bitcoin futures premium, which measures the difference between monthly derivatives prices and regular spot markets, serves as an important indicator when traders are overly optimistic. In independent markets, a 5% to 10% annual premium is expected to compensate for longer settlement times. The current 13% premium shows that whales and arbitrage tables are somewhat happy, a healthy sign that Bitcoin hit an all-time high on November 13.

As professional traders anticipate an imminent Bitcoin price correction, the price of hedging with defensive options will rise, causing the bias indicator to exceed 6%. Conversely, periods of overconfidence can push Bitcoin's skew below -6%. Recent BTC options data points to a healthy and neutral market despite a 16% rally in less than three days.

Related: $100K Bitcoin? 9 Analysts Share Their End-of-Year BTC Price Predictions

Unless there is a significant decline in US Treasury yields, investors will continue to seek alternative limited assets such as Bitcoin, suggesting that macroeconomic conditions are favorable. Despite proposals from the new Trump administration to cut government spending, there is little that can be done in the short term, as most changes require legislative approval.

The path for further BTC price gains looks promising, given the crypto-friendly US administration, with Republican majorities in both houses of Congress, alongside neutral-to-bullish sentiment in Bitcoin derivatives markets. According to Senator Cynthia Lummis' proposal to increase the US Treasury's Bitcoin reserves, it could easily push the price of BTC above $100,000.

This article is not intended for general information purposes and should not be construed as legal or investment advice. The views, ideas and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.