Bitcoin price outlook depends on the outcome of the 2024 US election – analysts
Bitcoin may see higher price volatility following the US presidential election, but some analysts see this as a positive development for the price movement.
As of 8:05 am UTC on Election Day, Bitcoin (BTC) remains overbought below $69,000.
According to analysts at Bitfinex, the current low Bitcoin price volatility reflects the cautious market sentiment ahead of the election results. However, increased volatility may contribute to Bitcoin's price increase, Bitfinex analysts said. Noticed:
“If the expected volatility fails to materialize, it could signal a more critical issue at play and a very deep correction for BTC on lower timeframes. From the perspective of the options market, indifference to price movements often reflects more pessimism than strong buying.”
BTC/USD, 1-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph
Bitcoin may benefit from the victory of former President Donald Trump, who is generally seen as a more pro-crypto candidate.
Trump's victory could pave the way for the next bitcoin rally, although analysts at Signum said this could still happen if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the presidency. They wrote:
“[Post-election] The market will continue its upward journey in anticipation of positive regulatory and legislative developments in the US after the new president takes office next January. This could happen regardless of the outcome of the election; However, as market sentiment favors a Trump victory, the rally could be even more pronounced in this case.
Bitcoin price was $200 shy of its all-time high before the election when it rose above $73,600 on October 29, the highest level since March.
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The End of Bitcoin's “Trump Trade” After the Election?
Many investors called Bitcoin's October rally the “Trump Pump.”
However, the so-called “Trump trade” could end for Bitcoin after the election, according to Bitfinex analysts:
“Our underlying issue remains that the ‘Trump trade' has been limited to Bitcoin in relation to pre-election speculation.”
Other analysts say Bitcoin will be used as a proxy for Trump's victory. However, this current “Trump hedge” rally lacks the fundamental macroeconomic conditions to produce all-time highs for BTC.
Harris vs. Trump 2024: What's wrong with the crypto market? Source: YouTube
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The Altcoin market is set for further decline in the short term.
Regardless of the outcome of the election, the altcoin market – which consists of cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) – is expected to expect more downsides.
Altcoins, especially those outside the 10 largest tokens, have seen a significant decline that could be extended after the election, according to Bitfinex analysts.
“We believe that the altcoin market is likely to face further declines in the medium term relative to Bitcoin, mainly due to the indifference of valuations. This general interest among investors shows that the revival in altcoins is impossible without a significant stimulus.”
While analysts are broadly anticipating the altcoin season, this cycle may be weak compared to previous historical altcoin rallies.
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