Bitcoin Price Prediction for 2026: New Peak or Crash?

Bitcoin price going into 2026 on split speculation. Some, like Tom Lee, strive for a $200,000 rally. Others, including veteran trader Peter Brandt, caution against testing ahead of deeper weakness.

Still, they argue that voices like Yanghoon Kim's seem like a temporary blip before strength returns. Predictions in conflict, the truth lies somewhere between fear and joy. As the new year begins, we'll take a closer look at what signs are showing up in the chart and chain.

December patterns and not yet triggered bottom signal

Bitcoin will end up in the red zone in December (almost there). That was the case before. Starting in 2022, every time Bitcoin closed December in the red, January turned green. That pattern helped raise the base for every move in 2025—including the April 2025 rally that ultimately pushed BTC's price to $126,000 in October.

Want more token insights like this? Subscribe to Harsh Notaria's daily crypto newsletter here.

Sponsored

Now, the same composition is appearing. And the reason for the red red December is with the short term BTC holders.

Short-term holder NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss), which tracks the profit and loss sentiment of recent buyers, remains in the capital zone. The last time this happened was in April 2025, which marked the bottom and helped initiate the October 2025 peak of $126,000.

At this time, the same capital sign was displayed. On November 21st, short holder NUPL touched -0.27, even bettering the April bottom mark. Today, it sits at around -0.14, still in capital territory. The bottom line is technically there. The answer is no.

Hunter Rogers, co-founder of TeraHash, the global Bitcoin production protocol, underlined how significant this scale is when speaking with BeCrypto.

One sign worth paying attention to is the behavior of short-term owners and the stability of long-term owners. As long as long-term owners persist, the cycle lives on, he says.

So after April's cap helped build the bottom that sent Bitcoin to new highs, the question today is simple:

Why hasn't the same signal yet triggered the same reverse reaction? The answer lies in how well behaved the long-term owners were.

And that leads us to the next part: the groups that usually come in to absorb this capital – long-term holders and whales – are completely absent this time. And by 2026, weakening the lead, they are still completely absent.

Long time owners back off

Long-term holders (LTHs) usually enter when short-term holders hold. They accept the offer, settle the price and start the next leg. That's what happened in April 2025. It created a cushion for the price to recover.

At this time, the pillow is thin.

Since October 1, long-term owners have been selling. They finally stopped, but the purchase is moderate. The recent high in LTH stock (December 2025) is set near 4,862 BTC, and most days it is close to 3,500 BTC. That's only 20% of April's strength.

The signal has improved, but it is not strong enough to turn the market on its own in 2026.

Sponsored

Rogers elaborates on how critical this group is to the survival of the cycle:

“As long as long-term holders remain steadfast, the cycle will survive. Continued long-term holding stability supports the outcome that Bitcoin will remain in the reset phase and potentially move higher over time,” he said.

So there is stability. The attack does not. And demonstrations will stop without violence.

The whales are silent, and that changes everything

Then there are whales.

A whale wallet holding 10,000–100,000 BTC per year is low. These wallets are increasing towards the bottom of April and continue to increase through July. That advance supported the run to $126,000. But today it is the opposite. The whale's lack of absorption leaves a gap. That gap meant that November's cap didn't fuel the price as much as it did in April.

Rogers highlights this dynamic.

“While the retail trade is still slow to respond, the whales receive all the supplies during the weak period. This pattern will continue to play out again and again,” he emphasizes.

Now the connection is clear. Short-term capital has shown up, but long-term holders and whales aren't snapping up the supply the way they were before the major BTC reversal phases. Whales aren't acting as shock absorbers yet, making the market more vulnerable to crash pressure than break-down momentum.

Rogers warns that this has direct implications for bully targets:

“So can Bitcoin go above $150,000 in 2026? Maybe. But it will take patience, liquidity, broad institutional adoption and time,” he said.

Sponsored

It also pushed back the most powerful predictions:

“The various scenarios of Bitcoin reaching $250,000 or more this year are unreal to me,” he added.

This somewhat contradicts the Bitcoin price predictions made by the likes of Tom Lee and Younghoon Kim, at least for the time being.

But the real question is why aren't long-term stocks and whales coming in aggressively despite the short-term capital signal? The answer is on the chart and in the price structure.

What does the 2026 Bitcoin price chart say?

On the three-day chart, Bitcoin is sitting in what looks like a bearish flag.

Measured movement of that structure creates a fragmentation risk of about 36%. This risk arises because two bearish EMA crosses are close. EMAs are moving averages that respond quickly to price. The 50-period EMA closes at the 100-period EMA, and the 20-period EMA closes at the 200-period EMA.

If both cross, the flag would signal weakness while testing support around $86,420. That combination may explain why whales and other deep pockets are wary, highlighting behavioral concerns.

Hunter Rogers told BeInCrypto the same thing:

“Bitcoin's movements in 2026 will be more determined by the nature of spending and risk,” he said

Sponsored

Now, that feature is stuck. Whales are not executing, and the price is struggling to break out of this range.

Case in point, Bitcoin needs to recover $105,200. That would invalidate the crash forecast. If that happens, the previous peak of around $126,000 could be reached again or better.

As Rogers puts it:

“The market has shown a high of around $126,000, but that alone will not stop the cycle. It will end up selling below the common cost,” he believes.

That “shared cost” sits near the mid-$50,000s.

Rogers calls this his line in the sand:

“The market structure is stable as long as the price stays above the broad price area in the middle of $50,000,” he emphasized.

A sustained drop below that zone would reverse the outlook and could align with the lower bear flag near $38,630. That move could put the structure at risk and force long-term owners into bankruptcy. Above $105,260, the structure will be improved.

Below the midpoint of $50,000, the structure terminates. That is why the $58,000 level on the chart is key.

What's next for BTC in 2026?

Now, the situation with Bitcoin is very straightforward and simple.

The bottom sign is shown. (STH capitulation) Usually the following is not desirable. (Whale and Hodler) A bearish chart setup hangs over it. (flag falls)

A break above $105,000 or a break below $83,300 could answer the question the market has been avoiding: Will 2026 see a new Bitcoin price high or a new crash?