Bitcoin price recovery can be paid at 78 thousand dollars – here’s why.

Market analysts say that Bitcoin (BTC) is in a relief rally after a 17% recovery from a multi-year low below $60,000, but the $78,000 level is the key to reversing the broader downward trend.

Main Receptors:

Bitcoin price is up 17% from below $60,000 as demand for onchain data shows signs of recovery.

BTC price resistance should be broken around $78,000.

Bitcoin buyers will return

As demand for BTC derivatives has returned, buyers are coming in, Bitcoin's net receivership volume shows, according to CryptoQuant data.

The net exchange rate, a measure of the imbalance between aggressive buyers and sellers in the derivatives markets, has remained positive since the start of the US and Israel-Iran war.

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“Since the start of the conflict, the net gain measured by the 30-day moving average has been positive,” Coinbureau CEO Nick Pukrin said on Wednesday in XPost.

This bullish regime coincided with BTC's recent price recovery to $74,000, indicating the return of demand in volatile markets.

“This shows that the buyer's buying volume is greater than the selling volume,” Pukrin added.

“Bitcoin buyers are in control.”

The Bull Point Index, a metric that measures the overall market health of Bitcoin by combining fundamental and technical metrics, further reinforces this picture.

The index rose to 30 from 10 on March 6, the highest since late October 2025.

The Bull Score Index chapter “has changed from ‘further bearish' to ‘depressed',” said Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant.

We are still in a bear market, but in a rally.

Meanwhile, spot demand for Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continued, with these investment products recording three consecutive days of inflows, totaling $529.2 million.

The price of BTC needs to break the $78,000 mark.

Data from TradingView shows that Bitcoin has spent more than four weeks consolidating in the $62,000–$72,000 range, with several failed attempts to maintain a strong foothold above $70,000.

On a smaller scale, the price will remain sandwiched between the realized price (the average purchase price of all transactions offered) of $54,400 and the real market average (the price of actively traded coins) of $78,000, Glassnode said in last week's On-Chain newsletter:

“In the absence of broader macro headwinds, this range could support a bear market relief rally closed by the real market average.”

As the chart above shows, BTC price has been in these two bearish levels for most of 2023, with rallies being repeatedly rejected by the true market average. Finally, the price crashed in October 2023, with the US spot Bitcoin ETF approval announcement as the main catalyst.

Trader and analyst Titan of Crypto said a break above $78,000-80,000 could indicate a change in the long-term trend.

Yesterday, Cointelegraph reported that Bitcoin's upside could be contained at $78,000, with traders predicting lower chances of the BTC price breaking above this level in the near term.

Meanwhile, Glassnode asserted that repeated failures to hold above $70,000 would “tilt the medium-term return spread bearish,” with $54,000 serving as a key support level to look at.

Other areas of interest include the 200-week exponential moving average at $68,300, the $60,000-$65,500 interest zone and the 200-week simple moving average at $58,800, which has historically provided the last line of defense against macro pullbacks.