Bitcoin Price Targets Based on Harris or Trump Win: Standard Chartered

Bitcoin (BTC) is on track to reach a new all-time high by the end of 2024, according to Standard Chartered.

The bank's global head of digital assets, Geoff Kendrick, quoted in a recent CoinDesk report, believes bitcoin could rise to $125,000 if former US President Donald Trump wins the upcoming election, or $75,000 if Kamala Harris wins the presidency.

Political influence on Bitcoin

While presidential elections are known to affect financial markets, Standard Chartered believes the outcome of this year's race will have less of an impact on bitcoin than it did during the Biden-Trump race.

Kendrick explained that the market now expects key regulatory progress regardless of who takes office. In particular, SAB 121, a strict accounting policy applied by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to banks' digital asset holdings, could be repealed in 2018. 2025 could be a powerful tailwind for Bitcoin.

The bank's report also noted that while Trump is known to be friendlier to crypto than Harris, the latter's administration will not stop Bitcoin's growth, but could slow down its regulatory progress.

Beyond the election, changes in the US Treasury market are another key factor that the bank expects to support the growth of the crypto-Bitcoin. The U.S. Treasury curve is currently trending upward, with vacation rentals shrinking less than real output.

This combination of falling risk-neutral yields and stable term premiums is building what the market watcher describes as “positive momentum” for Bitcoin's long-term price path.

Mining activity is set to influence prices.

It's not the first time Standard Chartered has taken a bullish stance on bitcoin. At the beginning of the year, the bank made a similar point about the upcoming US election, which gave a big boost to cryptocurrency price movements.

At that time, he suggested that BTC could even reach $150,000 by the end of the year if Trump returns to office. The lender believed that political conditions combined with regulatory and economic changes could provide a strong basis for the rise of Bitcoin in the coming months.

Additionally, in the July outlook, Standard Chartered maintained its view that BTC had the potential to hit $120,000. Citing increased mining profitability as one of the key drivers behind his positive outlook, Kendrick said miners were seeing higher earnings from BTC mining at the time when Bitcoin prices were rising, allowing them to sell fewer coins while maintaining their cash flow.