Bitcoin's price trajectory is set to be heavily influenced by the upcoming US presidential election, Bernstein said on Tuesday, suggesting that if former President Donald Trump wins the 2024 election, bitcoin could soar to unprecedented levels above $80,000 to $90,000.
However, in the case of the victory of Kamala Harris, the recent view of Bitcoin may be significantly declining, which may test a new low in the region of $ 40,000.
“We expect Bitcoin to continue to react to the election odds and become more positive, if it begins to better recognize Trump's chances and if it ties into the region, if the race remains ‘too close to call'.” Properties in Bernstein, in a memorandum shared with Decrypt.
He added that while Trump has been more outspoken in his rhetoric against crypto voters, “Harris has become more conservative in her stance on digital assets, which could lead to less regulatory support for the industry in the near term.”
Bernstein's analysis also factors in market sentiment, reporting that traders on decentralized betting platform Polymarket increased their positions significantly on a Trump victory. “Although not definitively, the odds have shifted meaningfully in Trump's favor, indicating that traders are gearing up for Trump's victory and its impact on markets, particularly the crypto sector,” the report said.
So far, Polymarket shows a 7% lead for Trump over Harris. Polymarket odds are often a reflection of market sentiment, and recent swings in favor of Trump could affect Bitcoin's potential price movement in the near term.
It was previously mentioned that Polymarket serves US users from the platform, and its blockchain roots may point to the users' attitude toward Trump, who made more explicit campaign promises to the crypto industry than his opponent. But Bernstein disagrees for the simple reason that there is more money on the line.
“We believe that Polymarket, with more than $1.5 billion in bets, is real money in play and that underdogs are playing on skill rather than reflecting their biases,” the analysts wrote.
They also indicated that while both candidates support digital assets, the Trump administration will provide broad support, particularly in areas such as bitcoin mining and institutional adoption. According to the report, Trump's policies could push Bitcoin to new highs by breaking the previous all-time high of $74,000.
“We estimate that Bitcoin could touch $80,000 to $90,000 if Trump confirms his presidency,” the analysts said. “However, if Harris wins, there is a risk that Bitcoin will test the lower end of the $40,000 range in the near term, indicating a risk of regulatory overcrowding.”
The report also emphasized that the outcome of the election will not only affect Bitcoin, but also other cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL). “We expect other crypto assets to remain range-bound until more clarity comes after the election, with Bitcoin leading the market's movement,” the report said.
Edited by Stacy Elliott.
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