Bitcoin pushes above $69K as retail bulls suggest
Bitcoin (BTC) rose to $69,482 on Friday, and the rally was linked to data from small-cap holders in February.
Analysts say the gap could turn into a broader bullish trend, although other data suggests a longer period of price consolidation could signal an emerging bull trend.
Main Receptors:
BTC broke above the $69,000 resistance and the descending channel, prompting a short-term liquidation of $92 million in four hours.
Small purses added $613 million in February, while whale purses stood at $4.5 billion in outflows.
The short-term dividend yield indicator hit its lowest level since November 2022, underscoring the weak sentiment of the past few weeks.
Will the Bitcoin rally last?
Bitcoin retested $69,000, pushing above the upper boundary of the descending channel. The move indicates that a breakout of structure (BOS) is likely if BTC holds above $68,000.
If BTC holds above this retracement level, the next internal liquidity zones will be located near $71,500 and $74,000. The 50 and 100-time exponential moving averages (EMAs) have now squeezed below the price on the hourly chart, reinforcing the possibility of a short-term bullish continuation.
The latest surge in prices sparked nearly $96 million in futures over the past four hours, with nearly $92 million coming from short positions, indicating a short squeeze on the bearish traders.
BTC liquidity is mainly concentrated on ByBit (22.5%), HyperLiquid (22%) and Gate (15%), indicating that these platforms have a significant share of active positioning in the market.
Related: Multi-Day Negative Bitcoin Funding Signs ‘Crowded' Short Trade: Reversal Coming?
It supports the creation of demand for BTC retail investors
The gap is supported by constant buying from the small investors. Order flow data from HighBlock shows that the smaller wallets ($0–$10,000) accumulated about $613 million in cumulative volume delta (CVD) in February, a steady bid during the price correction.
Mid-sized wallets ($10,000–$100,000) have about -$216 million left for the month, but the group is up about $300 million as BTC falls below $60,000, indicating that there is stock to choose from during the bearish period.
Well bags (100,000 and over) saw their CVD bottom in early February to -$5.8 billion and have since moved sideways. This stabilization suggests that the aggressive spread has stalled, although a clear rallying trend from large holders has yet to emerge.
For the rally to continue, whale buying may need to reverse, and the short owner's outperformance ratio (SOPR) may need to move back above 1, indicating that recent buyers are not selling at a loss.
Notably, the short-term bond SOPR recently fell to its lowest level since November 2022, indicating that many recent buyers are taking losses, a sign that delinquency may be weak even if it rebounds.
Related: Bitcoin slows past $69k on US CPI print, but Fed rate-cut odds low
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