Bitcoin Rally to $105K is unlikely due to global socioeconomic factors

Main Receptors:

Bitcoin's move above $97,000 lacks confirmation in commodity markets, with options showing caution for any sustained rally.

Geopolitical concerns, falling Treasury yields and weakening equities reinforce a risk-averse setup that will continue to limit Bitcoin's upside.

After posting a 5.5% gain on Wednesday, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) rose to its highest level in more than 60 days. The move pumped about $840 million into the space's Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on Monday and Tuesday. With Bitcoin gaining a leg up, is it possible to make an additional profit of $105,000 in the near term?

Bitcoin's rally to $97,000 contrasts with continued weakness in the tech-heavy Nasdaq index, which has repeatedly failed to recapture the 26,000 level last seen in November 2025. Investor sentiment is mixed, with Bitcoin still trading 23% below gold at $126,219 and gold hitting a record high of 2. More bidding for traditional safe assets.

According to the BTC options delta skew metric, professional traders have not yet turned higher (sell) options and continue to trade at higher prices. The delta skew of BTC options currently stands at 4%, unchanged from a week ago, indicating a stable risk perception following Wednesday's rally above $96,000. Traders are skeptical about continued profits above $100,000.

Bitcoin's rise has been overshadowed by sociopolitical concerns

Typically, when whales and market makers grow optimistic, the squirrel turns negative, indicating increasing demand from neutral to bullish alternative strategies. Instead, Bitcoin bears are cautiously cautious, as the recent price advance saw $370 million of leveraged short (selling) positions in liquidation, the highest since October 2025.

Part of the pessimism could be linked to geopolitical tensions after Iran's opposition threatened military action from US President Donald Trump, including an “additional 25% import tariff on countries doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran.” Investors fear that if the proposal moves forward, US relations with China and India could deteriorate.

The Trump administration's plans to annex Greenland have strained investor confidence. Trump has argued that a self-governing Danish state is vital to US national security. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has offered aid to Denmark against a hostile invasion, Politico reported.

The U.S. two-year Treasury yield fell to 3.51% on Wednesday, indicating that traders are accepting lower yields for the safety of government-backed bonds. This is particularly impressive as the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) was above the US Federal Reserve's target of 2.7%.

Berkshire Hathaway chairman and former CEO Warren Buffett is said to have warned of a lack of clarity about the future direction of artificial intelligence. Reflecting this caution, Berkshire's cash position rose to $381.7 billion from $170 billion a year ago.

The Nasdaq index fell 1.6%, while Oracle ( ORCL US ) shares fell 5% after bondholders filed a class-action lawsuit over the company's failure to disclose the need for significant additional debt to expand its artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Related: Bitcoin ETFs on Rollercoaster as Traditional Funds Pull $46B in 2026

As uncertainty increases, traders reduce equity exposure, indicating lower exposure to risk, which limits appetite for currencies.

It's unclear whether Bitcoin has decisively ended its two-month bear market, but the results data shows traders remain highly skeptical of a quick rally to $105,000. For now, investors' focus remains on broader sociopolitical concerns and whether the US Federal Reserve can support economic growth without exacerbating inflation.