Bitcoin Rally to $76K shows strength but no confirmation
Bitcoin's (BTC) rally to $76,000 has boosted market optimism for investors, but onchain data suggests the move could still be part of an early stage recovery characterized by frequent price volatility.
According to Glassnode, BTC price has entered an “open” zone between $72,000 and $82,000, with minimal resistance.
This range is specifically defined by the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), which highlights where the investors are stockpiling their coins. This means that if the momentum continues, BTC may move more freely within this range in the short term.
Glassnode explained that a more reliable signal is whether the broader market is returning to profitability. The share of Bitcoin supply in profits has grown to nearly 60%, a level often seen in the early stages of a recovery. Added Glassnode
“A sustained push above 75% carries more weight to confirm early bull market conditions, but continued rejection at current levels reinforces the bear market recovery narrative.”
Another key factor is how the market handles the current selling pressure. As Bitcoin rose above $74,000, short-term holders realized profits at an accelerated rate, with profits reaching $18.4 million per hour.
This reflects the behavior seen in previous failed rallies, where investors sell into strength, masking the upside momentum. If Bitcoin can ride this wave of profit-taking and maintain support above $70,000, it will likely rally in the $78,000 to $82,000 range.
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The trend indicator remains in bear market territory
From a technical perspective, the broader trend structure still leans toward caution. On higher time frames (daily and weekly charts), Bitcoin continues to trade in a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, indicating that a higher market structure has not developed.
For a bullish reversal, BTC needs to break above the previous low high near $97,855 and continue its price action above that level.
This region corresponds to the Fibonacci “golden zone” between the 0.5 and 0.618 retracement levels, which is an area monitored by traders as a key decision during trend reversals.
A clean breakout above this range, after consolidation, would indicate strong demand and increase the likelihood of a long-term rally.
The CryptoQuant cycle indicator echoes this cautious view. The Bitcoin Bull-Bear cycle indicator remains in the latent state, improving to -0.72 from -1 at the beginning of this month, but it is still far from confirming the trend reversal.
For confirmation of a full bull market, the indicator must move above 1, indicating continued positive movement.
An early signal to watch is above the bullish 365-day moving average, currently -0.23. This level acts as a long-term trend filter, smoothing out short-term volatility and indicating whether the market is moving towards a higher timeframe bullish or bearish trend.
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