Bitcoin reaches 74.5 thousand dollars but future data, macro signal caution

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Bitcoin derivatives remain weak as traders fend off price declines despite BTC reaching the $74,000 level.

With the Gulf of Hormuz closed, the threat of global energy shortages rises, forcing investors to dive into safe-haven Treasury assets.

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed above $74,000 on Monday, following gains in the Nasdaq index as investors awaited Nvidia (NVDA US) CEO Jensen Huang's speech at the Nvidia GTC 2026 global AI conference, the biggest chip-sucker event of the year. Falling oil prices and growth in the US manufacturing sector have helped support riskier assets.

Despite this bleak backdrop, Bitcoin derivatives suggest professional traders aren't fazed by the price's rally to a 40-day high.

The annualized monthly bitcoin futures premium against spot markets stood at a modest 2% on Monday, below a neutral range of 4% to 8%. This lack of enthusiasm has been typical over the past 30 days, perhaps reflecting trader discomfort as bitcoin has rallied 31% in six months, while gold has gained 18% and the Nasdaq 100 index has remained flat.

While it is difficult to pinpoint the exact drivers behind the price weakness, it can be attributed in part to a number of events, including the lack of a clear implementation period for the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Meanwhile, the historic $19 billion liquidation event on October 10, 2025, unloaded overused long positions and threatened market makers' appetite.

In addition, there were concerns about the vulnerabilities of quantum computing. As capital moves out of gold and silver, capital looks for signs of weakness in the U.S. and Israel-Iran war and in the U.S. labor market.

Bitcoin options represent fear even if they have an institutional buying process

The delta skew of Bitcoin options on Deribit stood at 13% on Monday, reflecting the persistent fear that has dominated the market for five weeks. When whales and market makers avoid downside exposure, they tend to trade put (sell) options to call (buy) instruments at a premium of 6% or more. The recent rally to $74,500 failed to change traders' sentiment.

USD stablecoins traded at a 0.5% premium to the official US dollar on Monday, indicating a balanced inflow and outflow in the region. Higher demand for Bitcoin usually pushes the indicator above the neutral threshold of 1.5%. At the same time, periods of stress can cause stablecoins to trade at a discount as they rush to exit the cryptocurrency markets.

Regardless of the Nvidia GTC 2026 event, investors will closely monitor the progress of the Iran war. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices were held close to $95 after the U.S. struck Iran's military assets on Friday night, with drone strikes reportedly halting oil shipments at the UAE's key port of Fujairah, Yahoo Finance reported.

Related: Metaplanet Raises $255M and Adds Guarantee Structure for Bitcoin Purchases

The Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important oil supply, is reportedly “essentially closed.” The yield on the 5-year U.S. Treasury fell to 3.82% after rising 3.87% on Thursday, indicating that investors sought the protection of government-backed assets amid heightened uncertainty.

Last week alone, the strategy was supported by buying 22,337 BTC, while US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs gained 11,117 BTC in inflows. Despite the institutional appetite, distrust in Bitcoin derivatives is strong evidence that the bear-market sentiment will not end.