Bitcoin Returns $71K, But How Long Will It Last?

Main Receptors:

Options skew hit 20%, signaling caution in Bitcoin derivatives as traders fear another surge in liquidity.

Bitcoin prices recovered some of Thursday's losses, but are still struggling to match gains in gold or tech stocks amid subdued demand.

Bitcoin (BTC) has gained 17% since Friday's low of $60,150, but derivatives gauges suggest caution as demand for price exposure to $70,000 remains limited. Traders fear that the $1.8 billion in bullish futures contracts traded over the past five days signaled a breakout by major hedge funds or market makers.

Unlike the Oct. 10, 2025 market crash that hit $4.65 billion in Bitcoin futures liquidations, the recent price weakness has seen a three-week low side effect. Bulls have been increasing the position from $70,000 to $90,000, as overall futures open interest has increased, despite insufficient margins due to a binding contract dispute.

Composite bitcoin futures open interest on major exchanges totaled 527,850 BTC, flat from last week. Even though the notional value of those contracts fell from $44.3 billion to $35.8 billion, the 20% change actually represents a 21% drop in Bitcoin's price over a seven-day period. Despite the decline in prices, data indicated that bulls were increasing their position.

To better understand whether whales and market makers have turned to their energy, one should review the fundamentals of BTC futures, which measure the difference in price relative to standard spot contracts. In exceptional cases, the fee should be 5% to 10% annually to compensate for the longer settlement period.

BTC futures base rate fell to 2% on Friday, the lowest level in over a year. The lack of bullish energy demand is expected to a certain extent, but the bulls will take more time than the consumers to gain confidence, even when the price of Bitcoin breaks above $70,000, especially when BTC is still below 44%.

Bitcoin derivatives indicators indicate high fear

The conviction of traders in Bitcoin is also seen in the BTC options markets. The excess demand for put options is an indicator of the strength of the depression, pushing the skew metric above 6%. Conversely, when fear of missing out kicks in, traders pay a premium for call (buy) options, causing the skewness to turn negative.

The BTC options skew gauge reached 20% on Friday, a level that is rarely sustained and typically represents market panic. For comparison, the skew indicator in It stood at 11% on Nov. 21, 2025, after a 28% price correction to $80,620 from a high of $111,177 20 days earlier. Fear and uncertainty have naturally escalated as there is no specific reason for the current decline.

Related: What Is Bitcoin Really Worth? Samson mow broke it.

Traders may continue to speculate that a major market maker, exchange, or hedge fund may have failed, and that sentiment can erode conviction and signal the likelihood of further price declines. Therefore, the likelihood of sustained bullish momentum is low as BTC derivatives metrics continue to indicate high fear.