Bitcoin Slows Down By $97K As Retail Stands Aside: Is The Rally Over?
Main Receptors:
Retail traders were sidelined despite BTC's recovery.
Institutional investors are buying the spot Bitcoin ETF again and corporate buyers can build BTC vaults and help send BTC to $100,000.
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) remained stable near $95,500 on Thursday, following an 8%, three-day rally, with $465 million lost in short BTC futures positions. However, according to web search and derivatives metrics, retailers remained on the sidelines. Bitcoin's pullback from $97,900 further dampened investor sentiment.
Bitcoin durable futures stood at 4% on Thursday, indicating that demand for bullish positions is limited. In neutral situations, the index to cover the cost of capital typically ranges from 8% to 12%. These derivatives are the preferred instruments of retail traders because their prices closely track the spot market, unlike monthly BTC contracts on the CME.
Institutional Bitcoin buying covers weak retail investor interest.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq index traded 1.6% below its all-time high on Thursday as traders gained confidence after chipmaker TSMC reported a 35% rise in quarterly revenue. Still, despite Bitcoin's recent gains, its current level of $95,500 remains 25% below its all-time high of $126,219. After all, the general interest in the cryptocurrency market is decreasing.
Google Trends data shows global search demand for “crypto” at 27 on a scale of 0 to 100, not far from a 12-month low of 22 months. Retailers are chasing recent winners, especially with silver prices up 28% in two weeks. Bitcoin has long been seen as a direct competitor to precious metals, but crypto traders mostly focus on short-term performance.
Part of Bitcoin traders' skepticism may be due to social and political concerns and concerns about maintaining the independence of the US Federal Reserve.
A U.S. Justice Department criminal investigation into spending related to renovations to the Federal Reserve building has raised concerns about whether President Donald Trump's administration is pressuring the Fed to lower interest rates. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's term ends in April, prompting traders to anticipate stronger economic stimulus measures in the second half of 2026.
Bitcoin has yet to prove itself as a safe hedge during economic turmoil, and as a result, even amid gains in stocks and precious metals, retail traders fear the cryptocurrency market could suffer during a major downturn.
RELATED: Iran Cut Off From The Internet–Here's How Crypto Still Works
Escalating tensions, Trump has threatened to retaliate against Iran's crackdown on anti-government protesters. Iran produces more than 3 million barrels of oil and controls the main international bottleneck for the flow of tankers. The US military operation that arrested then Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on January 3, 2008.
A lack of retail interest is not a death sentence, as the Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) industry has surpassed $120 billion in assets. Public companies continue to follow Michael Saylor's ( MSTR US ) playbook and have bought more than $105 billion in Bitcoin. Interest from institutional investors has gained relevance until 2025 and may ultimately be the deciding factor behind a sustained bullish move to $100,000.
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