Bitcoin spot rates will drop to 2023 as rallies do not have a conviction
Bitcoin (BTC) spot volume on Binance has dropped to its lowest level since September 2023, indicating that current price increases may not be supported by strong demand.
The rally above $71,700 on Monday seems to have been mainly focused on news headlines and Bitcoin futures markets.
Binance volumes and exchange flows indicate a demand gap for BTC
Crypto analyst Darkfost March is on track to record the lowest Binance spot volume since Q3 2023 at about $52 billion, compared to $88 billion in September 2023.
Exchange flow data shows a similar slowdown. Crypto analyst ArabChain reported a seven-day cumulative inflow of $6.38 billion on Binance and $5.14 billion on Coinbase. Binance flows have dropped to their lowest level since 2024, indicating a slowdown in deposit activity.
However, lower revenues may coincide with reduced supply to sell as fewer coins enter the exchanges. Coinbase's flows remain relatively stable, reflecting the steady participation of long-term investors.
A large holder movement adds another layer. Market analyst Gaah, which tracks the rate of change on major exchanges, identified the rate of whale flow as a record.
The current reading of 74.3 is above the cycle highs of the past 11 years, with a peak of 124.6 recorded at the end of 2015.
A higher rate of inflows indicates aggressive capital rotation and hedging, increasing BTC's exposure to short-term volatility over the next few weeks.
RELATED: Bitcoin Returns to $71K as Oil Drops After Trump Pauses Iran Attacks
Bitcoin liquidity shows that traders are guilty
The BTC rally followed reports that President Trump had delayed a planned US attack on Iran's energy infrastructure by five days, citing progress in diplomatic talks, a claim later denied by Iran's Foreign Ministry, who said no negotiations had taken place.
BTC still rose to a weekly high of $71,789 on Binance during the US market session, driven not by spot demand or futures positioning, but by the aforementioned external motivation.
The data shows that the rally is facing a decline in capacity. Total open interest decreased by 9,700 BTC, representing a 4% decrease in 13 hours.
Open interest tracks the total number of active futures contracts, and a decline during price increases indicates that positions are being closed rather than new ones being opened.
This type of movement usually occurs when short positions are exited from the market, which increases the price while reducing the overall exposure. Binance recorded more than $44 million in short-term liquidity within an hour.
Coinbase's premium (in percentage terms) remained negative during the move, indicating limited spot demand from US participants.
Falling open interest, high liquidity and weak premiums suggest that the higher move was driven by closings rather than new money entering the market, with most of the activity concentrated around $71,000–$72,000.
Related: Gold Slides as Traders Look Below $50K BTC: Five Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week
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